Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD shines above $1,780 amid volatile US Dollar, spotlight is on US CPI

Gold price has sensed decent demand after dropping below $1,780.00 as the US Dollar has turned volatile.
S&P500 futures recovered vigorously as investors shrugged off inflation expectations-inspired uncertainty.
A decline in US one-year inflation expectations has also dented casual inflation consensus.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

Gold price (XAU/USD) has displayed a recovery after dropping below the crucial support of $1,780.00 in the Asian session. The precious metal witnessed a steep fall on Monday as investors are expecting higher interest rate peak guidance by the Federal Reserve (Fed) for CY2023.

A recovery in Gold price banks upon an improvement in the risk appetite theme. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has dropped below 105.00 in early trade and is expected to extend its losses ahead. S&P500 futures recovered vigorously on Monday as investors shrugged off inflation expectations-inspired uncertainty. The 10-year US Treasury yields have sensed pressure and have dropped below 3.60% as the Fed is highly likely to buzz a slowdown in the interest rate hike pace ahead.

A decline in United States one-year consumer inflation expectations has also dented consensus for casual inflation figures. The economic data declined to 5.2% in November from 5.9% in October, marking the biggest one-month decline on record. The headline inflation is seen slowing down to 7.3% from the former release of 7.7%.

Analysts at JP Morgan Chase & Co. believe that a soft reading in United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data could spark a powerful rally in United States equities. The 500-stock basket of the United States could rally up to 10% if headline inflation drops to 6.9% or lower, as reported by Bloomberg.

Gold technical analysis

Gold price has found cushion on a confluence of the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is marginally above $1,780.00 and the upward-sloping trendline plotted from November 23 low at $1,721.23 on an hourly scale.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is looking to come out of the bearish range of 20.00-40.00 for a decisive recovery.

Gold hourly chart

XAU/USD

Overview
Today last price	1783.26
Today Daily Change	2.76
Today Daily Change %	0.16
Today daily open	1780.5

Trends
Daily SMA20	1767.71
Daily SMA50	1712.62
Daily SMA100	1718.6
Daily SMA200	1791.32

Levels
Previous Daily High	1797.52
Previous Daily Low	1777.64
Previous Weekly High	1810.12
Previous Weekly Low	1765.89
Previous Monthly High	1786.55
Previous Monthly Low	1616.69
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1785.23
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1789.93
Daily Pivot Point S1	1772.92
Daily Pivot Point S2	1765.34
Daily Pivot Point S3	1753.04
Daily Pivot Point R1	1792.8
Daily Pivot Point R2	1805.1
Daily Pivot Point R3	1812.68

Author

Sagar Dua

FXStreet

Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.

AUD/USD sits near a one-month top, above 0.7000 amid fresh USD selling

AUD/USD holds above 0.7000 through the Asian session, trading near a one-month high touched earlier this Monday amid renewed US Dollar selling. US bond yields decline further amid a modest pullback in crude oil prices, capping the USD recovery from a three-week low. Moreover, bets for a November RBA rate hike support the Aussie, though upside seems capped ahead of the crucial two-day FOMC meeting, starting Tuesday.

USD/JPY struggles below 157.00 on weak USD; holds above one-month low ahead of Fed, BoJ meetings

USD/JPY attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Monday, stalling its recovery from the lowest level since September 18, touched Friday as a further decline in US bond yields weighs on the US Dollar. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen benefits from a more hawkish BoJ, further weighing on the currency pair. The downside, however, seems limited as traders keenly await Fed and BoJ policy meetings later this week.

Gold looks slightly bid above $4,000

Gold manage to regain some balance, leaving behind two daily drops in a row and reclaiming the key $4,000 mark per troy ounce and above on Monday. The better tone in the US Dollar and mixed US Treasury yields accompany the precious metal’s uptick, while declining crude oil prices appear to sustain the bounce for now.

Bitcoin stalls around $80,000 as geopolitical tensions dampen risk appetite

Bitcoin hovers around $80,500 on Monday after three straight weeks of correction. Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to push oil prices higher, stoking inflation concerns and dampening risk appetite.

Everyone's bracing for a hawkish central bank week. Here's why the surprise could be dovish

Five of the world's major central banks are preparing to announce monetary policy decisions this week, with investors increasingly anticipating higher interest rates as the global energy shock continues to push inflation above target.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.