Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD loses battle from $1820, focus shifts to US Core PCE Price Index


  • Gold price is establishing below $1,820.00 on hawkish commentary from Western central banks.
  • The DXY is aiming to recapture its 19-year high as US PCE has climbed to 7.1%.
  • The precious metal is hovering around the lower portion of the Descending Triangle.

Gold price (XAU/USD) has turned sideways after displaying wild swings in the New York session. The precious metal is oscillating in a narrow range of $1,814.96-1,819.13 after reversing its gains. The speech from Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell brought a sense of volatility in the gold prices and his hawkish commentary was committed to bringing price stability to the US economy.

Investors should start discounting a consecutive rate hike of 75 basis points (bps) as accelerating inflation has become invincible for the US households and they have to face its consequences. The comments from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde that returning to a lower inflation rate is not possible now. The commentary spooked the FX arena and risk-sensitive currencies took a hit.

Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY) is aiming to recapture its 19-year high at 105.79 on an improvement in US Personal Consumption Expenditure on a quarterly basis.  The US PCE landed at 7.1% from the prior print of 7%. No wonder, the improvement in PCE must bank upon higher prices rather than higher demand.  Going forward, the focus will remain on the Core PCE Price Index, which may decline to 4.7% from the prior print of 4.9% on an annual basis.

Gold technical analysis

The gold prices are trading near the potential support of the Descending Triangle pattern. The downward sloping trendline of the above-mentioned chart pattern is plotted from June 16 high at $1,857.58 while the horizontal support is placed from June 16 low at $1,815.73. The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1,819.36 is acting as a major resistance for the counter. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is holding itself above 40.00 levels, however, a slippage below the same will bring more weakness in the bright metal.

Gold hourly chart

XAU/USD

Overview
Today last price 1817.68
Today Daily Change -2.32
Today Daily Change % -0.13
Today daily open 1820
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 1839.5
Daily SMA50 1855.57
Daily SMA100 1892.07
Daily SMA200 1844.71
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 1829.51
Previous Daily Low 1818.47
Previous Weekly High 1847.95
Previous Weekly Low 1816.99
Previous Monthly High 1909.83
Previous Monthly Low 1786.94
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1822.69
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1825.29
Daily Pivot Point S1 1815.81
Daily Pivot Point S2 1811.62
Daily Pivot Point S3 1804.77
Daily Pivot Point R1 1826.85
Daily Pivot Point R2 1833.7
Daily Pivot Point R3 1837.89

 

 

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