Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD gains some ground on risk aversion at the end of the week

At the end of the week, the XAU/USD Gold spot slightly recovered to $1,890, but it is still poised for a 1% weekly decline, its fourth weekly loss in a row. The metal seems to be consolidating losses after seeing red in the previous four days and also got a boost due to risk aversion fueled by markets worrying about the Chinese economy’s health.

In that sense, a sour market mood was spread due to a Chinese real estate giant, Evergrande, filing for bankruptcy protection in a US court. It's worth noticing that the same giant had defaulted on huge debts back in 2021, which sent shockwaves through financial markets so the yellow metal may benefit in the upcoming sessions as investors may take refuge in it.

On the other hand, what explains the XAU/USD’s decline is that US Treasury yields, often seen as the opportunity cost of holding gold, sharply rose, mainly because of the hawkish stance seen by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in Wednesday’s minutes from the July meeting which saw participants leaving the door open for another hike. To end the week, US rates are declining, as investors may be taking refuge in bonds allowing the metal to gain traction.

XAU/USD Levels to watch

The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests a neutral to bearish stance for XAU/USD as the bulls are working on staging a recovery but are still deep in negative territory. With an ascending slope below its midline, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests a potential increase in buying pressure, while the Moving Average Convergence (MACD) displays neutral red bars. Furthermore, the pair is below the 20,100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), implying that the bears retain control on a broader scale while the buyers are urged to make improvements.

Support levels: $1,870, $1,850, $1,830

Resistance levels: $1,900, $1,906 (200-day SMA), $1,930.

XAU/USD Daily chart