Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD slides to $1,820 area, downside seems limited


Update: Gold traded with a mild negative bias around the $1,825 region, or daily lows, during the early North American session, albeit lacked any follow-through selling. A goodish US dollar rebound from one-month lows in reaction to St. Louis Fed President James Bullard's hawkish comments, saying that the US central bank should taper asset purchases this fall and go fairly rapidly. This, in turn, was seen as a key factor that weighed on the dollar-denominated commodity. Apart from this, a relatively flat opening in the US equity markets further acted as a headwind for traditional safe-haven assets, including gold.

The downside, however, remains cushioned, at least for the time being, amid signs that the Fed will wait a bit longer before slowing its massive monetary support. Dovish Fed expectations, along with a fresh leg down in the US Treasury bond yields extended some support to the non-yielding gold. Moreover, the XAU/USD, so far, has managed to hold its neck above the very important 200-day SMA. This further favours bullish traders and supports prospects for additional gains. Some follow-through buying beyond the monthly swing highs, around the $1,834 region, will reaffirm the outlook and pave the way for a further near-term appreciating move.

Previous update: Gold consolidated the overnight strong gains back closer to monthly tops and oscillated in a narrow trading band, around the $1,825-30 region through the first half of the European session. Worries about the potential economic fallout from the fast-spreading Delta variant of the coronavirus continued weighing on investors' sentiment. This turned out to be one of the key factors that continued underpinning the safe-haven XAU/USD.

Meanwhile, the risk-off impulse in the markets triggered a fresh leg down in the US Treasury bond yields. This comes on the back of the Fed Chair Jerome Powell's dovish remarks on Wednesday and further acted as a tailwind for the non-yielding gold. Apart from this, the prevalent selling bias surrounding the US dollar extended some additional support to the dollar-denominated commodity, though the lack of any follow-through buying warrants caution for bulls.

Nevertheless, gold remains on track to record its biggest weekly gains since May 21 and seems poised to appreciate further amid signs that the Fed will stick to its ultra-lose policy stance for a longer period. The US central bank on Wednesday acknowledged that the economy has made progress towards the maximum employment and price stability goals. However, the Fed Chair Jerome Powell took a dovish turn at the post-meeting press conference.

Powell emphasised that they were some ways away from substantial progress on jobs. He was also cautious about tapering and said that policymakers discussed some details but it will take a few more meetings to get into it. The market speculations were further reinforced by Thursday's disappointing US GDP report, which showed that the world's largest economy expanded by 6.5% annualized pace in the second quarter as against the 8.5% growth anticipated.

Technical outlook

Looking at the technical picture, acceptance above the very important 200-day SMA favours bullish traders. That said, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through buying beyond the monthly swing highs, around the $1,834 region, before positioning for any further upside. The next relevant hurdle is pegged near the $1,845-46 area, above which gold is likely to accelerate the momentum towards the $$1,866 area. Some follow-through buying should allow bulls to eventually aim to reclaim the $1,900 round-figure mark.

On the flip side, the 200-day SMA, currently around the $1,821 region, might now protect the immediate downside. This is followed by support near the $1,810 horizontal level, below which gold could slide back to the $1,800 mark. Some follow-through selling below the key $1,790 support might prompt some aggressive technical selling. The next relevant support is pegged near the $1,765-60 region before the XAU/USD eventually drops to challenge monthly swing lows, around the $1,750 region.

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