- Gold regains positive traction on Monday and is supported by the emergence of fresh USD selling.
- Retreating US bond yields weigh on the buck, though Fed rate hike bets should limit the downside.
- The risk-on impulse should further contribute to capping any meaningful gains for the commodity.
Gold attracts some buying on the first day of a new week and reverses a major part of Friday's downfall to over a two-week low. The XAU/USD sticks to its intraday gains through the first half of the European session and is currently placed near the daily high, around the $1,657-$1,658 region.
The US dollar struggles to capitalize on Friday's strong intraday positive move and meets with a fresh supply on Monday amid a modest pullback in the US Treasury bond yields. A weaker greenback offers some support to the dollar-denominated gold, though a combination of factors could act as a headwind and warrants caution for bullish traders.
Reports that the UK government is preparing for a major U-turn on planned tax cuts boost investors' confidence, which is evident from the risk-on impulse in the equity markets. This, along with growing acceptance that the Fed will stick to its aggressive policy tightening path to curb inflation, should keep a lid on the safe-haven gold.
In fact, the markets have priced in a nearly 100% chance for another supersized 75 bps Fed rate hike move for the fourth consecutive meeting in November. The bets were reaffirmed by the stronger US CPI report released last week and the recent hawkish comments by several Fed officials, adding credence to the negative outlook for the XAU/USD.
The aforementioned fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for gold is to the downside. Hence, any subsequent move up might still be seen as a selling opportunity and runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly. A sustained strength beyond the $1,680-$1,682 supply zone is needed to negate the near-term bearish bias.
Market participants now look forward to the US economic docket, featuring the release of the Empire State Manufacturing Index later during the early North American session. This, along with the US bond yields, will influence the USD price dynamics. Apart from this, the broader risk sentiment might provide some impetus to gold.
Technical levels to watch
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
GBP/USD bulls retain control near 1.3300 mark, highest since March 2022
The GBP/USD pair trades with a positive bias for the third straight day on Friday and hovers around the 1.3300 mark during the Asian session, just below its highest level since March 2022 touched the previous day.
USD/JPY pops and drops on BoJ's expected hold
USD/JPY reverses a knee-jerk spike to 142.80 and returns to the red below 142.50 after the Bank of Japan announced on Friday that it maintained the short-term rate target in the range of 0.15%-0.25%, as widely expected. Governor Ueda's press conference is next in focus.
Gold consolidates weekly gains, with sight on $2,600 and beyond
Gold price is looking to build on the previous day’s rebound early Friday, consolidating weekly gains amid the overnight weakness in the US Dollar alongside the US Treasury bond yields. Traders now await the speeches from US Federal Reserve monetary policymakers for fresh hints on the central bank’s path forward on interest rates.
Shiba Inu is poised for a rally as price action and on-chain metrics signal bullish momentum
Shiba Inu remains strong on Friday after breaking above a symmetrical triangle pattern on Thursday. This breakout signals bullish momentum, further bolstered by a rise in daily new transactions that suggests a potential rally in the coming days.
Bank of Japan set to keep rates on hold after July’s hike shocked markets
The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its short-term interest rate target between 0.15% and 0.25% on Friday, following the conclusion of its two-day monetary policy review. The decision is set to be announced during the early Asian session.
Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know
VERIFIED In this review, the FXStreet team provides an independent and thorough analysis based on direct testing and real experiences with Moneta Markets – an excellent broker for novice to intermediate forex traders who want to broaden their knowledge base.