Gold price remains inside woods as investors await economic data
- Gold price turns sideways after a solid recovery as investors await fresh triggers for further action.
- Fed’s Powell kept doors open for further policy tightening to ensure price stability.
- Fed’s Mester supports one more interest rate hike, though not necessarily in September.
Gold price (XAU/USD) turned lackluster after defending the critical support of $1,900.00 on Monday. The precious metal consolidates as investors prepare for crucial economic indicators such as Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and ISM Manufacturing PMI for August, which will be released later this week. The impact of August economic data will be very significant as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell reiterated at the Jackson Hole Symposium that further policy action will be data-dependent.
Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole said that the achievement of price stability has a long way to go. Powell kept doors open for further policy tightening if economic data continues to remain supportive. After Powell’s commentary, investors expect that the central bank could raise interest rates in November as a last nail in the coffin.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price revives ahead of economic data
- Gold price consolidates above $1,910.00 as investors digest the impact of the hawkish commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
- Powell’s speech was very much in line with market expectations. The Fed’s chair confirmed that the central bank can raise interest rates further as the job of ensuring price stability has not been completed yet but promised that policymakers will remain very careful in upcoming policy meetings.
- Powell also emphasized that incoming data will be a major factor for further policy action.
- The central bank has evidence that inflation is getting more responsive to labor markets. Powell said that further signs of a tightening job market could warrant more Fed action.
- About achieving price stability, Jerome Powell said that "inflation remains too high, the process of bringing down inflation still has a long way to go, even with more favorable recent readings."
- The precious metal could face some selling pressure as Cleveland Fed Bank President Loretta Mester said she supports one more interest rate hike, though not necessarily in September.
- As per the CME Group Fedwatch Tool, there is a more than 80% chance of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September, while the majority of investors are betting on an interest-rate hike in November.
- Fed’s Mester said that, after being done with hiking rates, the central bank needs to hold rates for a while. The policymaker emphasized on achieving price stability by the end of 2025 and should not allow it to drift into 2026.
- About rate cut discussions, Fed Mester is in favor of re-evaluating it in the second half of 2024. She believes that the central bank has a good shot at attaining 2% inflation without damage to the real economy.
- Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker supports holding interest rates steady as labor markets are cooling. Harker added that interest rates could be increased if inflation reaccelerates.
- As Jerome Powell talked about dependency on incoming data for further policy action, United States Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and ISM Manufacturing PMI data for August will remain in focus this week.
- US hiring has slowed down in the past few months, but the Unemployment Rate has remained at historic lows and wage growth has been strong.
- Factory activity has been contracting for the past nine straight months as US firms are operating at lower capacity due to a bleak demand outlook.
- Also, US firms are clearing their old inventories as expansion plans have been postponed due to higher borrowing costs.
- The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains supported around 104.00 and is expected to turn lackluster as investors prepare for crucial economic indicators.
Technical Analysis: Gold price tests $1,920
Gold price turns sideways around $1,915.00 after defending the crucial support of $1,900.00 as investors digest Powell’s hawkish commentary at the Jackson Hole Symposium. On a broader note, the precious metal is auctioning in a range of $1,904-$1,922 from Thursday. The yellow metal made two consecutive Spinning Top candlesticks, signaling indecisiveness among market participants. The precious metal regains territory above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1,907 but the 20-day EMA at $1,916 is still restricting its upside potential.
Fed FAQs
What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar?
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings?
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD?
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar?
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Author
Sagar Dua
FXStreet
Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.
