|

Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD has a clear floor for the current retreat – Confluence Detector

Gold prices have fallen off their highs, cooling down as fiscal stimulus talks have yet to reach the final line. While both Republicans and Democrats are reporting progress, time is running out toward the elections and it is unclear if lawmakers would opt to pass legislation during the "lame duck" period. 

The precious metal was rising on hopes for a multi-trillion dollar injection of funds from the federal government. Moreover, the market mood dampened after US security authorities said that Iran and Russia obtained voter registration files and are threatening people ahead of Election Day. Concerns about foreign interference may contribute to a contested election and no new stimulus.  

How is XAU/USD positioned after these developments? 

The Technical Confluences Indicator is showing that gold has robust support at $1,909, which is the convergence of the Simple Moving Average 200-1h and the SAM 5-one-day. 

Below this critical line, an additional cushion awaits at $1,903, which is where the Fibonacci 38.2% one-month and the Fibonacci 38.2% one-week meet up.

Looking up, resistance is at $1,925, the confluence of the 50-day SMA, and the Fibonacci 23.6% one-day. 

Further above, $1,923 serves as an upside target. It is where the Bollinger Band one-day Upper and the previous week's high converge. 

Key XAU/USD resistances and supports

Confluence Detector

The Confluence Detector finds exciting opportunities using Technical Confluences. The TC is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. Knowing where these congestion points are located is very useful for the trader, and can be used as a basis for different strategies.

Learn more about Technical Confluence

Author

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

FXStreet

Yohay is in Forex since 2008 when he founded Forex Crunch, a blog crafted in his free time that turned into a fully-fledged currency website later sold to Finixio.

More from Yohay Elam
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD revisits 1.3530; Dollar pushes harder

GBP/USD adds to the weekly correction and recedes toward the 1.3530 zone on Friday. Indeed, Cable faces increasing selling pressure on the back of extra gains in the Greenback, particularly fuelled by Chair Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium and the US NFP Annual Revision (-79K).

EUR/USD breaches below 1.1600, multi-day lows

EUR/USD now accelerates its decline and retreats to seven-day troughs in the sub-1.1600 region at the end of the week. The pair’s pullback comes on the back of the strong rebound in the US Dollar after Chair Warsh delivered a hawkish message in Jackson Hole, while the US NFP Annual Revision came in at -79K.

Gold battles key support amid renewed Iran and Fed hike risks

Gold is resuming Friday’s steep downside early Monday as the NFP week kicks in. US Dollar sees a profit-taking pullback, despite hawkish Fed’s Warsh and fresh Iran risks. Gold attacks 21-day SMA near $4,400 after Friday’s close below 200-day SMA; RSI is still bullish.

Week ahead: RBNZ and BoC decide on rates ahead of all-important US NFP
The US dollar staged a modest recovery this week, perhaps as traders decided to cover some of their short positions amid slightly stickier or in-line US PCE inflation numbers for July, confounding expectations of softer prints amid the softness revealed in the CPI data for the month.
Bitcoin slips below $78,000 – DEX tokens rally

Bitcoin price is trading above $77,000 on Monday, sustaining monthly gains of over 20% so far. The technical outlook for Bitcoin is bullish as the price holds above a crucial retracement support level at $76,706 amid broader market risk-on sentiment. Decentralized Exchange tokens, Uniswap and PancakeSwap, emerge as top performers over the last 24 hours, eyeing further gains.

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.