Gold intermarket: gold sticks to the script, (risk-on, gold down)

Dollar makes fresh highs
Dow correlation remains intact
US 10 year yields through crucial 2.40%

Ross J Burland FXStreet

Gold is sticking to the script, with a pick up in the Dow, (as earnings continue to come in largely ahead of expectations), Gold has dropped below key technical short-term levels while capped at a longer-term lagging indicator level. In respect to the negative correlation between the Dow and Gold on the 4hr sticks, the index and spot price's correlation jelled on the 7th of September with the bull trend steepening in the Dow and the start of the bear trend in gold. More recently, on the 18th Oct, once again, there is a very evident correlation.

Dow clocks fresh record highs on strong earnings

Eyes on US yields and DXY fresh highs, more downside to come?

Gold is consolidating currently between 1291 and 1272 within the bear trend. For today, the Dow is leading the risk sentiment again and Gold is moving lower towards yesterday's early low of 1272,58. Of course, the dollar remains a factor with bulls picking up the pace towards the psychological 94 level while eking out fresh highs at 93.95 on Tuesday as US 10 year yields make fresh highs through the psychological 2.40% mark at 2.4117%. Gold could extend the downside here should the US dollar remain better bid on US higher yields with 1275 a key support to keep an eye on.

US Dollar treading water around 94.00

Gold levels

Gold has dropped below the 21 SMA on the 4hr sticks, capped by the 100 SMA on the same time frames while the RSI (14) moves into oversold territory at 30. 1275 (100-D SMA) is the next key downside area for a daily close, although this looks fragile on the back of a resurgence in the greenback and next major support below 1273.60 comes at the 5th October lows of 1260.60. To the upside, 1280 and 1287, (21- D SMA meeting 10-D SMA), 1300/04 /08 areas remain key with daily closes above there for a look in at 1313.

Author

Ross J Burland

FXStreet

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

AUD/USD turns south toward 0.6900 as USD firms up

AUD/USD sees fresh selling and drops toward 0.6900 in late Asian trading on Monday, as renewed US Dollar strength weighs on the pair amid lingering Middle East and Russia-Ukraine geopolitical tensions. Focus remains on Oil prices, Treasury bond yields, and RBA expectations for fresh trading impetus in the major.

USD/JPY retakes 158.00 amid hawkish BoJ bets, firmer USD

USD/JPY erases losses and retakes 158.00 in the Asian session on Monday, trading within a one-week-old range. Geopolitical uncertainty continues to underpin the US Dollar, despite fading Fed rate hike hopes, supporting the pair's rebound. However, further upside could be capped by hawkish BoJ expectations and looming intervention risks that could support the Japanese Yen.

Gold extends its struggle below $4,200

Gold clings to recovery gains near $4,150 early Monday, maintaining last week’s range. US Dollar reverts to 17-month highs despite receding Oil prices, Treasury yields, and Fed rate hike bets. Gold’s technical picture appears skewed to the downside in the near term.

Dogecoin: ETF inflows and technicals fuel recovery

Dogecoin (DOGE) extends its gains, trading above $0.096 on Monday after finding support around the key support zone last week. Continued inflows into spot DOGE Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), alongside strengthening derivatives metrics, indicate improving market sentiment. Meanwhile, the constructive technical outlook suggests the meme coin could extend its gains if the key level holds.

Economics week ahead

In the U.S., the September ISM Services index is expected to ease modestly while continuing to signal expansion, with particular attention on whether price pressures remain elevated. In Canada, the labor market likely rebounded in September, although broader trends still point to a cooling pace of employment growth.

The Euro is near a one-year low: Inflation could trigger its rebound, not its fall

EUR/USD has fallen to its lowest level since May 2025. The pair hit 1.1312 on Wednesday and trades well below the January peak of 1.2082. The decline reflects a powerful combination of US Dollar strength, geopolitical uncertainty and renewed concerns about Europe's exposure to higher energy prices.