Global growth surprised on the upside early 2019, but with some worrying signs from its composition - BBVA

According to the Research Department at BBVA, economic growth gained momentum in early 2019 across the world, but they point out that protectionism is a threat and also signal some worries about the factors behind Q1 growth. 

Key Quotes: 

“Growth in the Eurozone, China and US surprised on the upside in 1Q19, but with some worrying signs stemming from its composition as it was supported by building inventories and declining imports, likely related with trade concerns and slowing domestic demand. In Europe, the positive surprise could also be linked to fading negative one-off effects in previous quarters and the positive effect of mild winter.”

“Up to March hard data was mixed: retail sales are still strong across the board, suggesting that domestic demand remains as the main driver of growth across regions, but contrast with the weakness of industrial sector and global trade.”

“But soft indicators slid again in April: Global manufacturing confidence remains gloomy, while services PMIs fell in developed and emerging economics and increased concerns about contagion effect from trade and manufacturing to services.”

“The escalation of US-China trade war (tariff increases and technological disputes) could weigh markedly on China’s GDP growth if they are not reversed, and would also the US and the EZ, eventually could negatively affect the good growth performance so far this year. However, this negative impact could be offset in the short-term by further expansionary fiscal and monetary policies (mostly in China).”

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility.

Feed news

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD rises above 1.1200 amid some USD weakness

EUR/USD is trading above 1.1200, recovering some of the losses. Earlier, ECB officials expressed concern about global growth President Draghi speaks later. Tension is rising toward the Fed decision.


GBP/USD pressured below 1.2600, Conservative contest in focus

GBP/USD is trading below 1.2600, consolidating the losses seen on Friday after US retail sales beat expectations. The Conservative contest is heating up ahead of tomorrow's second vote.


USD/JPY: wait-and-see continues ahead of Fed

The dollar consolidates its gains against most rival, and scarce data exacerbates the quietness. USD/JPY bullish above 108.90, bearish below 108.10.


Gold recovers early lost ground, back above $1240 level

Gold recovered a major part of its early slide and moved to the top end of its daily trading range, above the $1340 region post-US data.

Gold News

Gold: Signs of bullish exhaustion ahead of the Fed

Gold's rally seems to have run its course with signs of bullish exhaustion emerging on technical charts ahead of Wednesday's FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) rate decision.

Read more