Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING, notes that German exports rebounded in September, increasing by 1.5% month-on-month.
“Also important, the August numbers were revised upwards to -0.9% MoM, from initially -1.8% MoM. With imports increasing by 1.3% MoM, the trade surplus increased to €21.1 billion, from €19.5 billion in August.”
“Today’s trade data leave analysts somewhat scratching their heads. Despite the ongoing trade woes, German exports had a better-than-expected quarter. Also, for total exports, German exports to the US have become as important as in 2015. In the first nine months of the year exports to the US accounted for 9% of all German exports. At the same time, however, exports to China are suffering.”
“With today’s data, a technical recession is not yet a done deal. In fact, today’s trade data suggest that there has been hardly any negative drag from net trade on 3Q GDP.”
“Still, contraction or not, the fact remains that the German economy has been in de facto stagnation for more than a year. This is clearly nothing to become too cheerful about.”
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