German IFO Business Climate Index drops to 95.7 in July, EUR keeps lows


  • German IFO Business Climate Index came in at 95.7 in July.
  • German Current Economic Assessment stood 99.4 at July.
  • German IFO Expectations Index arrived at 92.2 July.

The headline German IFO Business Climate Index came in at 95.7 in July, weaker than last month's 97.4 and missing the consensus estimates pointing to a reading of 97.1.

Meanwhile, the Current Economic Assessment arrived at 99.4 points in the reported month as compared to last month's 100.8 and 100.4 anticipated.

On the other hand, the IFO Expectations Index – indicating firms’ projections for the next six months, came in at 92.2 for July, down from previous month’s 94.2 reading and worse than market expectations of 94.0.

The headline IFO business climate index was rebased and recalibrated in April after the IFO research Institute changed series from the base year of 2000 to the base year of 2005 as of May 2011 and then changed series to include services as of April 2018. The survey now includes 9,000 monthly survey responses from firms in the manufacturing, service sector, trade and construction.

The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

The headline numbers came at the weakest levels since April 2013, as Germany's business morale remains affected by the Euro area economic growth concerns and trade uncertainty. The recent streak of downbeat EMU macro data is likely to add to the increased odds of ECB easing in the coming months.

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