• GBP/USD loses 0.22% today after the BoE rate decision event.
  • The pair accelerated below the descending wedge formation.

 

Today at the Bank of England (BoE) meeting the vote split surprised markets as MPC members Saunders and Haskel turned dovish.

The vote ended up 7-2 in favour of keeping rates unchanged but the two mentioned above voted for a 25bps cut. Now the futures markets are pricing in a 20bps cut by the end of 2020 vs the previous expectations of 14bps.

The BoE also revised their growth and inflation forecasts:

"Inflation in one year's time at 1.51% (Aug. forecast 1.90%), based on market interest rates."

"Inflation in two years' time at 2.03% (Aug. forecast 2.23%), based on market interest rates."

"Inflation in three years' time at 2.25% (Aug. forecast 2.37%), based on market interest rates."

"Market rates imply more BoE loosening than in Aug, point to bank rate at 0.5% in 2022 (Aug 0.6%)."

"GDP growth of +0.4% QQ in Q3 2019 (Sept forecast +0.2% QQ), sees +0.2% QQ in Q4 2019."

GBP/USD 60-minute Chart

As you can see from the chart below the price accelerated lower below the chart formation,

Now things have settled down GBP/USD has consolidated just above 1.28. The market tried to push past the psychological support level but the bulls brought it back up.

The election and Brexit situation is still the main theme for the pair so bare that in mind. The BoE events are secondary in nature. On the daily chart 1.2787 is still the support level to beat. If that breaks then the pair would have created a lower high lower low wave formation. Beyond that, the next support on the daily chart hold at 1.2525.

GB/USD analysis

 

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