- GBP/USD picks up bids following a bounce off 1.3921.
- UK unilaterally extended NI border checks, EU vows legal response.
- US Treasury yields regain upside momentum amid hopes of heavy fund inflow from America, the UK.
- Fed’s Powell will be watched to confirm reflation fears, UK has Brexit, virus updates to entertain traders.
GBP/USD picks up bids to 1.3950 while reversing the Asian session losses ahead of the London open on Thursday. The quote’s latest recovery lacks follow-through as reflation fears as back to the table. However, Brexit fears and cautious sentiment ahead of a speech from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell keeps buyers hopeful as they couldn’t cheer the UK’s business-friendly budget the previous day.
UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak used the Tory government-backed firepower to pave the way for a speedy recovery out of the pandemic. However, the measures were mostly expected and the tax hikes, about to return from 2023, seemed to have gained major attention.
Also on the negative side was Britain’s unilateral extension to the food import checks at the Northern Ireland border. The moves teased Europe and the following talks between the European Commission (EC) Vice President (VP) Maroš Šefčovič and Lord Frost of Allenton David Frost also couldn’t convince the UK to step-back.
Elsewhere, chatters that the ECB is less worried about the latest rally in the Treasury yields as well as the progress of US President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion covid relief bill suggests heavy inflow of funds, together with the UK’s budget, favor bond bears the previous day. Furthermore, rumors that the US House is off on Thursday amid a feared plot to attack the Capitol Hill joined China-linked cyber attack on Microsoft’s email server to heavy the risks and favor the US dollar index (DXY) for the second consecutive day.
Amid these plays, stock futures in the UK and the US remain offered but the US 10-year Treasury yields ease from the intraday high of 1.493% to currently around 1.479%.
Moving on, market players may keep following the bond moves while waiting for Fed’s Powell to confirm the reflation fears. Should the cautious Chief of the Fed back bond bear, the US dollar can extend the latest run-up and weigh on the sterling. However, Friday’s US NFP can give another reason for the GBP/USD buyers to stay hopeful.
Technical analysis
Sustained trading below the one-week-old resistance line, at 1.3980 now, directs GBP/USD towards an ascending support line from February 17 near 1.3865.
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