- GBP/JPY could extend gains due to diminished expectations regarding the BoJ exiting from negative interest rates.
- The safe-haven Japanese Yen could face challenges due to the surge in the global money markets.
- UK PMI data showed a slight improvement in domestic business activity in the private sector.
GBP/JPY remains around 190.60 during the Asian session on Friday, exhibiting a positive bias to extend its winning streak for the fourth consecutive day. Concerns about a potential recession in Japan may delay the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) plan to exit from negative interest rates in the near term.
Moreover, the surge in global money markets, as investors digest the dashed hopes for interest rate cuts by major central banks worldwide, is weighing on the safe-haven Japanese Yen (JPY). However, the JPY may find some support from recent verbal intervention by Japanese authorities.
Earlier in the week, the Japanese Yen gained support from better-than-expected Trade Balance figures released by the Ministry of Finance of Japan, thereby limiting losses for the GBP/JPY cross. Additionally, market participants are awaiting Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) data scheduled for release on Tuesday.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) received upward support from mixed Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for February from the United Kingdom (UK). While the preliminary Manufacturing PMI for February came in at 47.1, slightly below market expectations of 47.5, the Services PMI remained unchanged at 54.3, surpassing the consensus of 54.1. The Composite PMI arrived at 53.3, exceeding expectations of remaining consistent at 52.9.
Uncertainty prevails among investors regarding the trajectory of policy rates by the Bank of England (BoE), particularly following remarks from BoE officials. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, in an address to the United Kingdom Parliament on Tuesday, noted the rapid decrease in UK inflation. He emphasized that the central bank does not require a definitive return of inflation to target levels before considering interest rate cuts.
Furthermore, on Wednesday, Swati Dhingra, a member of the Bank of England, suggested that delaying interest rate cuts could lead to increased living costs and potentially result in a harsh economic downturn for the United Kingdom.
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