Forex Today: Oil, Gold and USD rally as US and Israel attack Iran

Eren Sengezer FXStreet

Here is what you need to know on Monday, March 2:

Safe-haven flows dominate the action in financial markets to start the week after the United States (US) and Israel carried out a coordinated attack on Iran over the weekend.

The US economic calendar will feature the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for February later in the day but investors will remain focused on headlines coming out of the Middle East.

Iran has retaliated and targeted US assets across the Gulf after the US and Israeli joint strikes killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and up to 40 top Iranian officials. Hezbollah also announced that it launched strikes on Israeli missile defense sites in response to the killing of the Supreme Leader. According to NBC News, three US service members have been killed in action. Meanwhile, BBC News reported that Iranian strikes around the region continue early Monday, with explosions reported in Bahrain and Dubai, and smoke seen near the US embassy in Kuwait. "On Sunday, an Iranian missile strike killed nine people in the Israeli city of Beit Shemesh," the outlet noted.

Crude oil prices rise sharply early Monday as Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced that no vessels are permitted to cross the Strait of Hormuz. The barrel of West Texas Intermedaite (WTI) opened with a huge bullish gap and hit its highest level since June above $75 before correcting lower. At the time of press, WTI was trading slightly above $72.00, rising more than 7% on a daily basis.

Gold capitalizes on safe-haven flows and gains more than 2% on the day, trading at a fresh monthly high above $5,400.

The US Dollar (USD) benefits from risk-aversion early Monday and gathers strength against its rivals. The USD Index was last seen fluctuating at around 98.35, rising about 0.75% on the day. In the meantime, US stock index futures are down between 1.3% and 1.8% in the early European session.

Despite the broad-based USD strength, USD/CAD stays relatively calm near 1.3650 as rising crude oil prices support the Canadian Dollar.

EUR/USD stays under bearish pressure and trades at its lowest level in nearly five weeks at around 1.1720, losing 0.8% on a daily basis.

GBP/USD continues to push lower after opening with a bearish gap and loses nearly 1% on the day at around 1.3360.

USD/JPY gains traction to start the week and advances toward 157.00, gaining more than 0.5% on the day.

Risk sentiment FAQs

What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets?

In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.

What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics?

Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.

Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"?

The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.

Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"?

The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

Author

Eren Sengezer

FXStreet

As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.

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