Forex Today: New quarter, same market gloom as coronavirus spreads, critical US data eyed

Yohay Elam FXStreet

Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, April 1:

Investors are not tricked on April Fool’s Day and are in a gloomy mood. Asian stocks and S&P futures are down at the beginning of the second quarter after the first quarter was the worst since 2008.

The US dollar is gaining some ground across the board after a volatile close to the quarter. President Donald Trump has issued a grim warning, talking a painful two weeks, while his advisors discussed various estimates of mortalities. Nearly 190,000 people have been infected in the US, with the death toll topping 4,000. The White House is considering cutting tariffs as another easing step.

EUR/USD is under pressure as the death tolls in Spain and France continue rising, while infections in Italy seem to level off. Final manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Indexes for March are projected to confirm only moderate contraction – yet this is due to a quirk in the methodology that counts delays as a positive factor. Eurozone countries remain at odds over corona-bonds. France, Italy, and Spain want a debt sharing scheme, while Germany and the Netherlands oppose it.

GBP/USD is trading below 1.24 after a volatile Tuesday, as the UK continues suffering rapid contagion. Final UK Manufacturing PMI is forecast to show a minor downgrade.

US data stand out later in the day. ADP’s private-sector jobs report is set to show a loss of around 150,000 jobs, in a precursor to the official Non-Farm Payrolls report.

See ADP Non-Farm Payrolls Preview: The job onslaught begins

Later on, economists expect a considerable fall in March. The Employment Component serves as another hint towards the NFP.

See ISM Manufacturing PMI Preview: Markets return first, factories second?

In China, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI came out at 50.1, indicating minimal growth and in line with the government’s figures. The statistics failed to cheer markets.

Oil prices are hovering around the lows, with WTI trading at the $20 handle. Saudi Arabia and Russia are considering a meeting to discuss petrol prices after launching a price war earlier this year. Trump spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier this week.

Cryptocurrencies have been on the back foot, with Bitcoin trading around $6,300.

More Oil prices are poor predictors of a recession

Author

Yohay Elam

FXStreet

Yohay is in Forex since 2008 when he founded Forex Crunch, a blog crafted in his free time that turned into a fully-fledged currency website later sold to Finixio.

AUD/USD breaks below 0.7000 ahead of inflation data

AUD/USD has accelerated its downward trend on Tuesday, breaching below the key 0.7000 yardstick ahead of the opening bell in Asia on Wednesday. Indeed, spot has retreated for the second day in a row despite the hawkish hike by the RBA early on Tuesday and in response to the continuation of the move higher in the Greenback. Looking ahead, all the attention will be on the release of Australia’s inflation data on Wednesday.

USD/JPY consolidates near 157.50 as a bullish USD counters intervention risks

USD/JPY struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from a one-week low, consolidating around 157.50 in the Asian session on Tuesday. Trump's concerns about the Japanese Yen's weakness fueled speculation about another US-Japan joint intervention. This, along with the hawkish BoJ, underpins the JPY and caps the currency pair. Meanwhile, rising Fed rate-hike bets and oil-driven inflation fears continue to push US bond yields to multi-year highs, keeping the US Dollar pinned near a two-month high and supporting the pair.

Gold trims gains; back toward $4,150

Gold now surrenders some of its initial advance and retests the $4,150 zone per troy ounce on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the move higher in the yellow metal comes despite the firmer US Dollar and rising US Treasury yields across the board, while escalating geopolitical tensions appear to limit the downside potential.

XRP advances within a robust technical structure

Ripple (XRP) shows signs of stabilizing after reclaiming support at $1.50 on Tuesday. A robust technical structure underpins the token’s short to medium-term bullish outlook. Still, XRP is not out of the woods yet, as profit-taking and buyer exhaustion could weigh on price action and extend the recent correction from September highs around $1.66.

RBA recap: Rate hikes are on the table as demand stays too strong

The Reserve Bank of Australia unanimously tightened monetary policy, warning that inflation remained too high and that several upside risks had begun to materialise. Governor Michele Bullock said the Board would raise rates again if necessary.

Silver is more volatile than Gold ahead of PCE and NFP. This chart shows the positioning gap

The market’s attention is focused on American data this week, but there’s something only those with a trained eye may be looking at: Gold and Silver positioning gap. Financial markets are moving on fears, mostly related to persistently high energy prices driven by the Middle East war. Sure, the US Dollar (USD) is strong, but at what cost?