Forex today: markets looking for a catalyst but still suffering FOMC hangover

Ross J Burland FXStreet

The forex space today was on the hunt for a fresh catalyst as traders spring back from the FOMC hangover although found themselves in a wide open space void of anything that could shake up the status quo.

The dollar continues on the backfoot, albeit able to rise around 0.1% on the US session despite the US 10yr treasury yields falling to a fresh two-week low from 2.50% to 2.47%. There was little to move on with Japan closed overnight and a lacklustre start in European trade in currencies other than the euro, Swissy and sterling. The yen was a strong performer though and that carried through between a range of 112.46 and 112.90. The underperformer on the bloc was sterling again. GBP/USD fell from 1.2435 to 1.2335 on the announcements that Article 50 will be triggered on the 29th March. As far as the antipodeans go, the Aussie remains the best performer for the month and spiked up to make a fresh four-month high at 0.7748. AUD/NZD was pretty much sidelined considering the Kiwi was also able to climb against the dollar to 0.7075. Fed Evens, with a bias of three hikes, offered the possibility of four rate hikes for 2017 and that supported the dollar. Harker was noting risks of inflation overshooting.

The day ahead:

All eyes will remain in the RBA minutes and markets will be looking for concerns over the housing and jobs market.

GMT	Event	Consensus	Previous
Monday, Mar 20
21:45	NZD Visitor Arrivals (YoY)		11%
23:30	USD President Trump Speech
Tuesday, Mar 21
24h	ZAR Human Rights Day
00:30	AUD House Price Index (YoY)		3.5%
00:30	AUD House Price Index (QoQ)	2.4%	1.5%
00:30	AUD RBA Meeting's Minutes

For NZ, we have the visitor arrivals and the GDT dairy auction that is priced by futures to show a WMP price fall of 5%. The French election debate has just got underway but is not likely to move markets. Trump is scheduled to make a speech and Aussie housing data will also be key. We will hear more from Fed speakers when Dudley speaks in London on bank ethics, but unlikely to offer Fed forward guidance. The main event for London will be the UK's Fe CPI and how a depreciating pound is impacting UK prices.

Key notes from US session

Author

Ross J Burland

FXStreet

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

AUD/USD falls to near 0.7100 after slipping below 50-day EMA

AUD/USD depreciates after registering minor gains in the previous day, trading around 0.7120 during the Asian hours. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows the pair consolidating sideways within a rectangle pattern, as neither bulls nor bears gain control. The AUD/USD pair is holding a slight bearish tone however as it sits beneath both the nine-day and 50-day EMAs.

Japanese Yen edges up but remains close to the 160.00 intervention threshold

The Japanese Yen edges up against the US Dollar on Friday, but the USD/JPY pair remains above 159.90 at the time of writing, unable to put a significant distance from the 160.00 level, considered the limit of tolerable JPY weakness for Japanese authorities.

Gold returns to the red, awaits US NFP

Gold price is looking to test the weekly lows, while in the red near $4,450 in the early European session on Friday. The precious metal remains vulnerable amid ongoing geopolitical turmoil. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding the US-Iran peace deal and the US May employment report later on Friday.

Arthur Hayes' “Holy Trinity” is dead: Exits Zcash after Orchard Pool exploit

Arthur Hayes has entirely dumped his “Holy Trinity” holdings by offloading his Zcash holdings on Friday. The privacy coin is down 13% so far on Friday, extending Thursday’s 26% decline after an Orchard Shielded Pool audit revealed a critical vulnerability that allowed the undetectable minting of fake coins. Hayes continues to hold Worldcoin ahead of the upcoming SpaceX Initial Public Offering, on the chance of a “high-beta proxy” rally.

Nonfarm Payrolls set to show stable labor market in May as markets digest Fed hawkish shift

The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Nonfarm Payrolls data for May on Friday at 12:30 GMT. Investors expect NFP to rise by 85K following the surprisingly strong 185K and 115K increases recorded in March and April, respectively.

Recession on paper: What really moves the Canadian Loonie now?

Statistics Canada handed the headline writers a gift and the analysts a headache. Real GDP shrank 0.1% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, and with the fourth quarter of 2025 revised down to a 1.0% contraction, that is two negative quarters in a row, the textbook definition of a technical recession and Canada's first since the pandemic.