Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD remains near $4,300 with strongest annual gain

Gold price fell after the December FOMC Minutes revealed a deeply divided Federal Reserve committee.
The yellow metal is on course for its strongest annual gain in 2025, rising more than 64%.
Safe-haven demand for Gold could rise amid escalating geopolitical tensions.

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

Gold price (XAU/USD) edges lower on the final trading day of 2025, trading near $4,310 per troy ounce during the European hours on Wednesday. The non-interest-bearing precious metals, including Gold lose ground as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) December Meeting Minutes, released on Tuesday, indicated a deeply divided committee.

Some Federal Reserve (Fed) officials said it might be best to leave rates unchanged for a while after the committee made three rate reductions this year. However, some policymakers judged that it would likely be appropriate to stand on further rate cuts if inflation declined over time.

Gold price is on track for its strongest annual gain in 2025, up more than 64%, with the rally accelerating in late April after US President Donald Trump’s global tariff rollout. Momentum has been further supported by strong central bank buying and rising holdings in Gold-backed ETFs.

The safe-haven demand for Gold could increase over the geopolitical tensions as investors reassess fading hopes of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal following alleged strikes on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s residence. Russia said it would harden its stance in peace talks after accusing Kyiv of the attack, an allegation Kyiv rejected as baseless and aimed at derailing negotiations.

In the Middle East, Saudi air strikes in Yemen and Iran’s declaration of a “full-scale war” with the United States (US), Europe, and Israel have heightened fears of wider instability, while Trump warned of further strikes if Iran resumes rebuilding its nuclear programme.

Gold FAQs

Why do people invest in Gold?

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Who buys the most Gold?

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

How is Gold correlated with other assets?

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

What does the price of Gold depend on?

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Author

Akhtar Faruqui

FXStreet

Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.

AUD/USD holds rebound near 0.6900 on US-China trade optimism

AUD/USD holds the rebound near 0.6900 in the Asian session on Monday. Mixed China's inflation data for October fails to provide any inspiration to the Chinese proxy, the Australian Dollar, but China's extension of the suspension of 24% tariffs on US goods and reduced US-Iran tensions help the Aussie pair cling to recovery gains.

USD/JPY retreat in sync with USD, appraches 158.00

USD/JPY is back in the red at the start of the week on Monday, eyeing the broad US Dollar retreat amid easing US-Iran tensions. Traders also resorting to profit-taking following the blockbuster US Nonfarm Payrolls data-led rally. US CPI report is next in focus.

Gold climbs to two-day highs past $4,100

Gold resumes its recovery and surpasses the $4,100 mark per troy ounce at the beginning of the week. The yellow metal’s solid performance comes amid fresh downside pressure on the US Dollar, shrinking US Treasury yields and a marked retracement in crude oil prices.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple extend downtrend as selling pressure mounts

Major cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple, maintain a broadly corrective tone, extending losses from the previous week. Risk-off sentiment builds in the crypto market following last week’s correction linked to Democrats sweeping the US midterms.

Two Huangs don’t make a right: Nvidia CEO caught in scandal – NVDA slides

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang sent employees an apology for being unfaithful to his wife, following reports that he may have been targeted in a foreign intelligence operation. Why is Nvidia trading roughly 5–6% below Friday’s close in the overnight market? And – more importantly – does this actually matter to the AI trade?

US Dollar breaks below 101.50 as Democrats sweep Congress

The US Dollar (USD) comes under heavy selling pressure on Wednesday, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) falling around 0.5% to trade near 101.35 after sliding below the 101.50 level. The Greenback retreats to its lowest level in four weeks as investors reassess the political and economic outlook following the Democratic Party's sweeping victory in the United States (US) midterm elections.