Forex today: All pretty much business as usual, markets stabilizing


  • Markets attempting to stabilise in the face of adversity.
  • USD/JPY sustained much of yesterday’s sharp rebound.

Forex overnight saw some slight recovery in risk following the Chinese saying that they ill do what they can to stablise the Yuan and Kudlow saying that the US and Chinese trade officials will meet again in September, instilling some optimism in the markets. The VIX dropped, sticks climbed a fraction of the rout and the yen was pushed back to the 107 handle, albeit only temporarily. 

The USD/CNY was fixed well below 7.00 yesterday which gave the initial relief in markets yesterday in Asia and the fact that the US Treasury said that the Chinese were FX manipulator, the feelings there since is that, "Wel, we already knew that". And the fact that the Reserve Bank of Australia didn't show too much concern and held rates, albeit, with an explicit easing bias for the future, it was all pretty much business as usual in the absence of any shocks or key US data. A fix today below 7 will be another plus for risk appetite. 

Currency action

As for currency action, analysts at Westpac explained as follows:

"EUR/USD slipped from yesterday’s peak of 1.1240 to 1.1200, dead flat on the day. GBP/USD seesawed then steadied around 1.2165, up 0.2% over the day. CAD weakened in line with oil prices. USD/JPY sustained much of yesterday’s sharp rebound from a multi-month low of 105.52 to 107.09, trading around 106.40/60, and leaving the safe-haven yen the underperformer on the day.

AUD/USD is flat on the day at 0.6760, a weak performance after rallying to 0.6800 on the CNY rebound and Australia’s record trade surplus. NZD/USD is also flat on the day at 0.6530, the rally on NZ’s sub-4% unemployment rate unwinding. As such, AUD/NZD is net unchanged at 1.0360, recovering from a low of 1.0265 on the NZ data."

Key notes from Wall Street:

Key events ahead: 

  • PBoC fix, expected at 6.99 vs the greenback. 
  • "The RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement is fully priced for a cut in the cash rate 25bp to 1.25%, likely accompanied by a signal of more to come (12pm Syd/10am Sing/HK). The key to any market reaction will be the strength of its guidance about further easing," analysts at Westpac noted. 

 

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