Forex Today: A mixed US Dollar and cautious markets before crucial US data

During the Asian session in New Zealand, the ANZ's Business Outlook survey is due, followed by Australia's Import and Export Price Index. Markets await critical Eurozone and US economic data ahead of central bank meetings. 

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, April 27:

Wall Street slipped again on Thursday amid banking concerns and a gloomy outlook. First Republic Bank tumbled again. Investors continue to digest the latest earnings results. The earning season continues on Thursday with Amazon, Mastercard, Merck, T-Mobile, Intel, Honeywell, Activision Blizzard, American Airlines and Hertz.

On Thursday, the US will report the first estimate of Q1 GDP growth, which includes the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Index, an inflation measure closely watched by Fed officials. Analysts at Wells Fargo warn that growth numbers could come significantly below consensus. 

A revision to prior retail sales data published this week is a potential game-changer. If our interpretation of the latest revisions is correct, then real GDP growth for Q1-2023, which will be reported on Thursday morning, could come in at half the growth rate that is presently expected by the consensus

Other reports due in the US on Thursday include Jobless Claims, Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity and Pending Home Sales. However, this number could be offset by inflation and growth numbers ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. A final 25 basis points rate hike is priced in.

The US Dollar Index dropped 0.40% on Wednesday and finished far from the lows. While the Greenback hit fresh 13-month lows versus the Euro, it reached monthly highs against the Aussie and the Kiwi. Commodity currencies were hit by risk sentiment. Next week, the Fed will have its monetary policy. Markets see a final 25 basis point rate hike, but expectations have eased up a bit following renewed banking concerns. US consumer inflation will be critical for Fed’s forecast.

US Core PCE Preview: Why this is a lose-lose situation for the US Dollar

The Euro outperformed on Wednesday amid rising odds (still low) of a 50 basis points rate hike from the European Central Bank next week.  Germany, Spain and France will release inflation data alongside Eurozone Q1 GDP on Friday.  EUR/USD climbed to 1.1094, reaching the highest intraday level since March 2022 and then pulled back, trimming gains.

USD/JPY ended flat, around 133.60, amid relatively steady bond yields and a mixed Dollar. On Thursday, the two-day monetary policy meeting kicks off at the Bank of Japan, the first one under Kazuo Ueda. No change is expected.

Inflation slowed further during the first quarter in Australia, cementing the case for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to stay on hold next week. AUD/USD dropped again, reaching monthly lows under 0.6600. NZD/USD continued to move slowly toward 0.6100 and March lows. The ANZ's Business Outlook survey is due on Thursday. USD/CAD rose marginally, holding above 1.3600.

Metals remained sideways. Gold ended lower at $1,988 after hitting a weekly high at $2,009, while Silver slipped below $25.00. Crude oil prices lost more than 3%; WTI fell to $74.50, erasing April’s gains.

 

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