• Ford stock is down 49% YTD.
  • Ford reported a 32% increase in vehicle sales in June.
  • F stock has sold off despite positive sales figures.

Ford (F) stock cannot seem to catch a break. Despite on Tuesday reporting a 32% YoY increase in vehicle sales in June, shares continued doing what they have done all year – sell off. At the time of writing just after Wednesday's opening bell, Ford stock is off another 1.5% at $11.03. So what gives?

Ford Stock News: Sales moving in the right direction or are they?

Ford management reported 152,262 sales in June. The figures were made up of mostly higher-margin models like the F-150 and Explorer. Electric vehicle figures also grew 77% YoY, now making up close to 3% of the total. 

The reason analysts and banks are less enthused about the figures is that the supply chain crunch of 2021 brough those year ago figures down considerably, so beating them by a large margin seems to be more of a statistical trick than a true advancement. For instance, Ford's June sales figures were a little more than 1% off the May figures, and Ford's first half saw an 8% overall decline in unit sales.

For the first half of 2022, Ford sold about 916,000 vehicles, down from 997,000 in the first half of 2021. Ford's 8% decline, however, looks better than its industry's decline of 18% over the same period. It sure seems like the recession has already come for the auto industry.

Ford Stock Forecast: How much further can Ford fall?

Ford stock is down 49% year to date. From the weekly chart below, observers can see Ford stock taking an escalator down an invisible descending trend line since at least the end of January. The top of Ford's cluttered price channel is pent in by the 9-week moving average (blue). Thus far that average is descending at an even keel and shows no signs of giving up. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Relative Strength Index (RSI) give no signs of a turnaround in the works.

It seems that though Ford stock is at support now, it may continue to drift until it finds the January 2021 support at $8.45. To break out of this price channel, Ford stock needs to break above the $12.45 resistance level. That price comes from June, and the $14 resistance area right above it comes from May. Above there stands resistance from April at $16.55, but again there are exactly zero catalysts for upward movement in this stock. A momentary bounce may procede from F shares touching the lower trend line.

Ford weekly chart

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