Ford Stock News and Forecast: F shares out of fashion despite positive sales growth

Ford stock is down 49% YTD.
Ford reported a 32% increase in vehicle sales in June.
F stock has sold off despite positive sales figures.

Clay Webster FXStreet

Ford (F) stock cannot seem to catch a break. Despite on Tuesday reporting a 32% YoY increase in vehicle sales in June, shares continued doing what they have done all year – sell off. At the time of writing just after Wednesday's opening bell, Ford stock is off another 1.5% at $11.03. So what gives?

Ford Stock News: Sales moving in the right direction or are they?

Ford management reported 152,262 sales in June. The figures were made up of mostly higher-margin models like the F-150 and Explorer. Electric vehicle figures also grew 77% YoY, now making up close to 3% of the total.

The reason analysts and banks are less enthused about the figures is that the supply chain crunch of 2021 brough those year ago figures down considerably, so beating them by a large margin seems to be more of a statistical trick than a true advancement. For instance, Ford's June sales figures were a little more than 1% off the May figures, and Ford's first half saw an 8% overall decline in unit sales.

For the first half of 2022, Ford sold about 916,000 vehicles, down from 997,000 in the first half of 2021. Ford's 8% decline, however, looks better than its industry's decline of 18% over the same period. It sure seems like the recession has already come for the auto industry.

Ford Stock Forecast: How much further can Ford fall?

Ford stock is down 49% year to date. From the weekly chart below, observers can see Ford stock taking an escalator down an invisible descending trend line since at least the end of January. The top of Ford's cluttered price channel is pent in by the 9-week moving average (blue). Thus far that average is descending at an even keel and shows no signs of giving up. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Relative Strength Index (RSI) give no signs of a turnaround in the works.

It seems that though Ford stock is at support now, it may continue to drift until it finds the January 2021 support at $8.45. To break out of this price channel, Ford stock needs to break above the $12.45 resistance level. That price comes from June, and the $14 resistance area right above it comes from May. Above there stands resistance from April at $16.55, but again there are exactly zero catalysts for upward movement in this stock. A momentary bounce may procede from F shares touching the lower trend line.

Ford weekly chart

Author

Clay Webster

FXStreet

Clay Webster grew up in the US outside Buffalo, New York and Lancaster, Pennsylvania. He began investing after college following the 2008 financial crisis.

AUD/USD bounces back toward 0.6950 on fresh USD supply

AUD/USD bounces back toward 0.6950 in the Asian session on Friday. The US Dollar retreats from 17-month highs as traders take profits off the table ahead of the all-important US Nonfarm Payrolls report. Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar draws support from reviving expectations of a November interest rate hike amid elevated global yields and inflation risks.

USD/JPY struggles near 158.00 as USD retreats ahead of NFP

USD/JPY is struggling for fresh impetus near 158.00, moving away from the top end of its weekly range in the Asian session on Friday, after hotter-than-expected Tokyo CPI and amid a broad US Dollar retreat. Traders reposition themselves ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls.

US Nonfarm Payrolls holds the key to Gold's next big move

Gold has returned to the red zone in Asia after failing several attempts to regain $4,200. Traders now eagerly await the US Nonfarm Payrolls data for September, which could significantly alter market expectations for an October Federal Reserve interest rate hike, having a major bearing on the US Dollar valuation and Gold’s next major move.

Pepe Price Forecast: PEPE sustains mild recovery on firm retail support

Pepe (PEPE) price holds steady around $0.00000440 at press time on Friday, sustaining the 3.50% gains from the previous day's rebound. The meme coin maintains firm retail demand, with its futures Open Interest stabilizing above $320 million and funding rates remaining positive. PEPE must reclaim the $0.00000500 psychological barrier to sustain an upward trend.

Why speculators slashed Yen longs by the most since August — and what that signals about risk

For much of the past month, the Japanese Yen (JPY) had become one of the market's preferred defensive trades. Hedge funds accumulated more than 170K net long contracts over four weeks as investors positioned for tighter Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy, persistent geopolitical uncertainty and a more cautious outlook for global growth.

Markets are pricing a Fed pause. The jobs data says the hike is still coming

The market has rapidly changed its mind about the Federal Reserve (Fed). Only a week ago, investors saw an October interest-rate hike as the most likely outcome. However, softer inflation and cautious comments from policymakers have since turned a pause into the dominant scenario. Yet beneath that dramatic repricing, the US economy is sending a considerably less dovish message.