In an interview on Bloomberg Television, NY Fed President and FOMC member John Williams said that the Fed needs to move expeditiously towards more neutral policy levels, but data will guide the timeline for this normalisation.
Additional Remarks:
- "We are seeing some early signs that consumers are shifting their spending patterns."
- Consumers are shifting more to services.
- "I expect that pattern to continue this year."
- With very high inflation, the Fed needs to focus on bringing inflation down.
- The labor market is basically back to almost where it was pre-pandemic.
- The Fed needs to reverse policy actions from March 2020.
- The pace of rate hikes depends on the path of the economy, but a 50 bps at the next meeting is a reasonable option.
- "My baseline assumption is neutral rate is still in the low 2-2.5% range".
- The Fed has to keep a focus on real interest rates.
- "We need to get real interest rates back to more normal levels by next year."
- "We may need to go a bit above that depending on inflation."
- Those decisions will be made as the economy evolves.
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