Analysts from Danske Bank take a look into next week economic releases from the Eurozone.
Key Quotes:
“In the euro area, we get the February figures for loan growth and M3 money supply growth on Monday. Loan growth increased for three consecutive months, from 1.8% yearly growth in October 2016 to 2.2% in January 2017. We estimate it increased further to 2.4% in February, reflecting higher demand for loans, as the ECB noted in the January Bank Lending Survey ‘loan growth continued to be supported by increasing demand…, while credit standards for loans to enterprises are broadly stabilising’.”
“German IFO expectations are also due to be released on Monday. IFO expectations saw a fall in January to 103.2, from 105.5 in December 2016, but increased to 104.0 again in February.
“German retail sales for February are also due for release on Monday. In January, we saw a monthly decline of 1.0% but we estimate a bounce back in February to 0.6%, as consumer confidence remains at a high level and low unemployment supports consumption. Note also that German unemployment figures are scheduled for release on Friday.
“We also have two speeches from ECB executive board members. Peter Praet is set to speak on Monday, with Benoit Coeuré due to speak on Friday. The speeches are of special interest to market participants, as speculation about whether the ECB could hike rates before termination of the QE programme has started to be priced.”
“On Friday, euro area HICP inflation data for March are released (…) We believe headline inflation will decline to 1.6% in March, partly as energy price inflation support starts to wear off. Core inflation is also set to decline, to 0.7% in March, from 0.9% in February, but this reflects the early timing of Easter in 2016. It is therefore a technical decline and does not reflect a change in the underlying price pressure, where wage pressure remains subdued. Note that German inflation figures are due to be released on Thursday.”
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