Eurozone: GDP to fall by 12% q/q on economies operating at 50% – ANZ

The economic implications of extended lockdowns are large. Large sectors of the economy have shut indefinitely. Tourism and travel are closed, as is the retail sector outside of food, pharmacies and petrol stations, analysts at ANZ Bank brief.

Key quotes  

“If an economy completely stops operating for one week, that leads to a 2% drop in GDP (100/52 weeks). By extension, operating at 50% capacity will drive a fall of 1.0%.”

“Given the high observed European mortality rate of 6.2% (11% in Italy), a base case assumption might now be that severe lockdowns of varying degrees could last for 12 weeks.”

“For economies operating at 50% capacity, that would imply GDP falling by 12% q/q following an estimated 3.0% q/q drop in Q1.”