- EUR/USD is on the defensive, but holding above the 200-day moving average.
- Reports of US-China trade truce are boding well for the US Dollar.
- An above-forecast German CPI could yield a rally in EUR/USD.
EUR/USD is trading on the defensive at press time despite reports of US-China trade truce. As of writing, the currency pair is trading at 1.1360, representing 0.10 percent losses on the day.
South China Morning Post reported in Asia that the US and China have tentatively agreed to another truce ahead of the weekend's G-20 meeting. The news lifted the Asian stocks and pushed the JPY lower across the board, but did little to boost EUR/USD.
Greenback's resilience could be associated with the three basis point rise in the US 10-year yield. It is worth noting that easing of trade tensions between the US and China, if any, would also ease pressure on the US Federal Reserve to cut rates. Therefore, the talk of temporary US-China trade truce could continue to bode well for the US Dollar in the European session.
That said, EUR/USD's technical outlook is still bullish with the pair holding above the inverse head-and-shoulders neckline support (former resistance). Further, the pair continues to trade above the 200-day moving average at 1.1352, having defended the key support in the previous two days.
As a result, a big move to the higher side, possibly to Tuesday's high of 1.1412, could be seen if the preliminary German consumer price index for June blows past expectations. The data due at 12:00 GMT is expected to show the cost of living in Eurozone's biggest economy rose 0.1 percent month-on-month in June, having risen 0.2 percent in the preceding month.
Eurozone's key long-term market inflation gauge – the five-year, five-year breakeven forward rate – is already up 10 basis points since Draghi's speech on Tuesday. The gauge would rise further if the German inflation data prints above estimate, weakening the case for an early European Central Bank rate cut and pushing the EUR higher across the board.
The pair, however, will likely find acceptance below the 200-day MA if the German data misses expectations by a big margin. Post-German data, the focus would shift to the third and final version of the US first-quarter gross domestic product, scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT.
Pivot levels
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
USD/JPY pops and drops on BoJ's expected hold
USD/JPY reverses a knee-jerk spike to 142.80 and returns to the red below 142.50 after the Bank of Japan announced on Friday that it maintained the short-term rate target in the range of 0.15%-0.25%, as widely expected. Governor Ueda's press conference is next in focus.
AUD/USD bears attack 0.6800 amid PBOC's status-quo, cautious mood
AUD/USD attacks 0.6800 in Friday's Asian trading, extending its gradual retreat after the PBOC unexpectedly left mortgage lending rates unchanged in September. A cautious market mood also adds to the weight on the Aussie. Fedspeak eyed.
Gold consolidates near record high, bullish potential seems intact
Gold price regained positive traction on Thursday and rallied back closer to the all-time peak touched the previous day in reaction to the Federal Reserve's decision to start the policy easing cycle with an oversized rate cut.
Ethereum rallies over 6% following decision to split Pectra upgrade into two phases
In its Consensus Layer Call on Thursday, Ethereum developers decided to split the upcoming Pectra upgrade into two batches. The decision follows concerns about potential risks in shipping the previously approved series of Ethereum improvement proposals.
Bank of Japan set to keep rates on hold after July’s hike shocked markets
The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its short-term interest rate target between 0.15% and 0.25% on Friday, following the conclusion of its two-day monetary policy review. The decision is set to be announced during the early Asian session.
Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know
VERIFIED In this review, the FXStreet team provides an independent and thorough analysis based on direct testing and real experiences with Moneta Markets – an excellent broker for novice to intermediate forex traders who want to broaden their knowledge base.