EUR/USD set to retake the 1.2150 mark – Commerzbank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

EUR/USD came under pressure on Wednesday. Today, markets are in consolidation mode, with EUR/USD hovering around 1.20. Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, sees this move as a correction and expects the pair to recover the end of April high at 1.2150.

See: EUR/USD to drop to 1.19 in the next month amid inflation debate – Rabobank

Downside corrective

“We consider that near-term weakness is corrective and ideally look for it to be contained by the 55-day ma at 1.1963 and the 200-day ma at 1.1946.”

“The 50% retracement of the rally seen in April lies at 1.1927.”

“Recovery should re-target the end of April high at 1.2150.”

“Above 1.2150 we look for gains to 1.2210/43, the 78.6% retracement of the move seen this year and the February high and then 1.2349 the 2021 high.”

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD remains offered around 0. 6950

AUD/USD has added to Wednesday’s decline, slipping back to the low 0.6900s just to grab some air afterwards and attempt a tepid bounce toward 0.6950 ahead of the opening bell in Asia on Friday. The Aussie’s extra weakness has come despite the Greenback receding modestly amid fresh improvement in the risk complex.

USD/JPY slips below 158.00 as USD retreats

USD/JPY returns to the red below 158.00 in the Asian session on Thursday amid speculation that authorities will step in to prop up the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, the US Dollar eases from near an 18-month high on profit taking, ignoring Wednesday's hawkish FOMC Minutes and the risk of a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East, adding to the pair's pullback.

Gold clings to daily gains; still below $4,150

Gold regains some composure and climbs back to the vicinity $4,150 mark per troy ounce amid decent gains on Thursday. The yellow metal’s recovery follows some loss of momentum in the US Dollar strength and a decent drop in US Treasury yields across the curve.

XRP downtrend persists as EMA support strains while Binance reserves swell

Ripple (XRP) sellers are gaining ground on Thursday, as the token slips below $1.40. Sell-side pressure remains intense in the broader crypto market, as seen with leading digital assets, including Bitcoin (BTC) currently below $83,000 and Ethereum (ETH), sliding below $2,600. Despite the correction, XRP retains a constructive technical outlook, with support provided by a key moving average cluster.

Three fundamental drivers are all pushing the Euro south. This chart shows them lining up on 1.1000

EUR/USD has already fallen sharply, but the forces pushing the pair lower are becoming increasingly interconnected. French fiscal concerns, renewed energy pressure and an uncomfortable policy dilemma for the European Central Bank (ECB) are colliding with a US economy that continues to give the Federal Reserve (Fed) little reason to turn dovish.

The UK 30-year gilt just hit a 1998 high. Is that good or bad for the British Pound?

The yield on the UK's 30-year government bond, or gilt, went through 6% on October 1 for the first time since early 1998, and on Monday the Pound was at its strongest against the Euro since June 2025. The gilt market's 28-year high is mostly someone else's. Since early May, the 30-year gilt yield has risen about 0.15 of a percentage point and the US 30-year about 0.7.