- EUR/USD extends the positive momentum near 1.1900.
- EMU’s Sentix index came in a tad below estimates in July.
- ECB’s C.Lagarde speaks later in the session.
The buying interest around the single currency remains well and sound and now lifts EUR/USD to the area of daily highs just below 1.1900 the figure on Monday.
EUR/USD up on USD-weakness, looks to Lagarde
EUR/USD advances for the second session in a row and extends the bounce off 3-month lows near the 1.1800 yardstick recorded on Friday.
In fact, the selling pressure continues to hurt the dollar as investors continue to assess the latest Payrolls figures (+850K), all exacerbated at the same time by the marginal trade conditions and scarce volatility in response to the inactivity in the US markets due to the Independence Day holiday.
Data wise in the Euroland, final Services PMI in Germany came in at 57.5 for the month of June (from 58.1 preliminary) and 58.3 in the broader euro area (from 58.0 preliminary). Additional data saw the Sentix Index improving to 29.8 in July (from 28.1).
Later in the session, Chairwoman C.Lagarde will participate in a panel discussion in France.
What to look for around EUR
Sellers failed to drag EUR/USD further south of 1.1800 the figure at the end of last week. Price action around spot, in the meantime, is expected to exclusively follow dollar dynamics, particularly after the latest FOMC gathering underpinned prospects of higher inflation and potential tapering before anticipated. Further out, support for the European currency comes in the form of auspicious results from fundamentals in the bloc coupled with higher morale, a strong rebound in the economic activity and the investors’ appetite for riskier assets.
Key events in the euro area this week: ECB’s Lagarde (Monday) – Germany/EMU ZEW survey (Tuesday) – ECB Accounts (Thursday) – ECB’s Lagarde (Friday).
Eminent issues on the back boiler: Asymmetric economic recovery in the region. Sustainability of the pick-up in inflation figures. Progress of the vaccine rollout. Probable political effervescence around the EU Recovery Fund. German elections. Investors’ shift to European equities.
EUR/USD levels to watch
So far, spot is gaining 0.12% at 1.1878 and faces the next hurdle at 1.1975 (weekly high Jun.25) followed by 1.1997 (200-day SMA) and finally 1.2000 (psychological level). On the downside, a break below 1.1822 (monthly low Jul.2) would target 1.1762 (78.6% Fibo of the November-January rally) and route to 1.1704 (2021 low Mar.31).
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