EUR/USD Price Analysis: Quick progress above 1.22 needed to avoid H&S pattern

  • EUR/USD trades near 1.2165 versus 1.2178 early today. 
  • The pair needs a quick move above 1.22 to avoid a head-and-shoulders pattern. 

EUR/USD defended the ascending (bullish) 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support and broke higher from a falling wedge pattern earlier this week, signaling an end of the pullback from recent highs near 1.2350. 

The recovery, however, looks to be losing steam in the 1.2180 neighborhood. A reversal lower from there would confirm the right shoulder of a head-and-shoulders (H&S) pattern on the 4-hour chart

Acceptance under the potential H&S neckline at 1.2050 would put the bears back into the driver's seat and open the doors for a 300 pip move lower (target as per the measured move). 

Alternatively, a quick move above the psychological level of 1.22 would validate the recent bounce from the 50-day SMA and weaken the case for the H&S pattern, possibly yielding a re-test of the monthly high of 1.2349. 

4-hour chart

Trend: Bullish above 1.22

Technical levels


Today last price 1.2169
Today Daily Change 0.0000
Today Daily Change % 0.00
Today daily open 1.2169
Daily SMA20 1.2198
Daily SMA50 1.2107
Daily SMA100 1.1939
Daily SMA200 1.1635
Previous Daily High 1.2173
Previous Daily Low 1.2104
Previous Weekly High 1.2227
Previous Weekly Low 1.2077
Previous Monthly High 1.231
Previous Monthly Low 1.1924
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.2147
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.2131
Daily Pivot Point S1 1.2124
Daily Pivot Point S2 1.208
Daily Pivot Point S3 1.2056
Daily Pivot Point R1 1.2193
Daily Pivot Point R2 1.2218
Daily Pivot Point R3 1.2262



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