EUR/USD Price Analysis: Falling wedge on 4H tests bearish impulse below 1.2100

EUR/USD wavers in a small range after bouncing off seven-week low.
Bullish chart pattern, recovering MACD keep buyers hopeful.
Early February lows, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement add to the downside filters.

Anil Panchal FXStreet

EUR/USD portrays choppy trading moves between 1.2075 and 1.2080, currently near 1.2076, during Tuesday’s Asian session. The pair dropped to the lowest since December 02 the previous day before taking a U-turn from the support line of a two-week-old falling wedge chart pattern on the four-hour (4H) play.

Considering the recovery in prices backed by the improving MACD signals, the quote is likely to direct the corrective pullback towards the 1.2100 threshold, for now.

However, any further upside past-1.2100 needs to cross the falling wedge’s resistance line, at 1.2116 now, to recall the EUR/USD buyers eyeing to refresh the multi-month high above 1.2349.

During the upside, Wednesday’s top around 1.2210 can offer an intermediate halt while April 2018 peak surrounding 1.2415 can please the bulls afterward.

On the contrary, the quote’s U-turn from present levels will have strong support around 1.2045/40 area including the pattern’s lower line and December 02 trough.

Even if the EUR/USD prices remain weak past-1.2040, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of November 23 to January 06 upside and November 30 top, around 1.2010-1.2000, will challenge the south-run.

EUR/USD four-hour chart

Trend: Pullback expected

Additional important levels

Overview
Today last price	1.2078
Today Daily Change	1 pips
Today Daily Change %	0.01%
Today daily open	1.2077

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.2205
Daily SMA50	1.2087
Daily SMA100	1.1931
Daily SMA200	1.1617

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.2087
Previous Daily Low	1.2054
Previous Weekly High	1.2227
Previous Weekly Low	1.2077
Previous Monthly High	1.231
Previous Monthly Low	1.1924
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.2066
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.2074
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.2058
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.2039
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.2024
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.2091
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.2106
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.2125

Author

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

GBP/USD rebounds above 1.3300 ahead of UK Retail Sales data

The GBP/USD pair recovers some lost ground to near 1.3325, snapping the five-day losing streak during the Asian trading hours on Friday. However, the potential upside might be limited amid heightened military tensions in the Middle East. Traders brace for the release of the UK Retail Sales data, which will be published later on Friday.

EUR/USD rises as US Dollar weakens despite rising Middle East tensions

EUR/USD gains ground after posting modest losses in the previous day, trading around 1.1380 during the Asian hours on Friday. However, the potential upside for the pair could be limited as the US Dollar may regain strength, largely driven by escalating conflicts in the Middle East that threaten to push crude oil prices higher.

Gold licks wounds near $4,050 on PMI day

Gold licks wounds near $4,050 in Asia on Friday, holding the previous day's heavy losses amid rising expectations of a Fed rate hike, bolstered by energy-driven inflation concerns. Moreover, the US-Iran standoff and US President Donald Trump's new tariffs keep the US Dollar's reserve-currency status alive, which continues to weigh on the bullion ahead of global flash PMIs.

Ethereum: Derivatives interest in ETH improves, but signs of caution remain

Ethereum is hovering slightly below the $1,900 level, down 3% on Thursday following a slight expansion in derivatives interest. The top altcoin's open interest has increased to 14.60 million ETH, marking a 600K ETH increase over the past two days and its highest level since June 7.

Silver's missing crisis trade: Why a war keeps pushing it down

The Strait of Hormuz has closed twice this year, and both times silver fell instead of rallying, because the crisis bid went into the US dollar rather than into metals. Silver trades near $58.77 an ounce as I write this, with the gold-silver ratio around 69.5.

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?

The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.