EUR/USD Price Analysis:100-day average again caps upside

EUR/USD again faces rejection around the 100-day average hurdle.
The immediate bias remains bullish with the pair holding above 1.0896.

Omkar Godbole FXStreet Contributor

EUR/USD is trading near 1.0930 at press time, having failed to keep gains above the 100-day average at 1.0968 on Tuesday.

The widely-tracked technical line was last put to test on May 1. On that day, buyers failed to absorb the selling pressure above the long-term average and the rejection proved costly. In the following four days, the spot reversed a major portion of the 1.0727 to 1.10 seen in the six trading days to May 1.

The latest rejection has so far failed to invite stronger selling pressure, leaving the pair mildly bid above the former resistance-turned-support at 1.0896 (May 13 high). That, alongside the bullish or above-50 reading on the 14-day relative strength index, suggests scop for a re-test of the average hurdle. A close higher could cause more buyers to join the market, leading to stronger gains, possibly to levels above the 200-day average at 1.1014.

However, if the pair drops below 1.0896, the buyer exhaustion signaled by Tuesday's candle with long upper wick would gain credence. In that case, stronger selling pressure may emerge, pushing the spot back to 1.08.

Daily chart

Trend: Bullish

Technical levels

1. R3 1.1039
2. R2 1.1008
3. R1 1.0966
PP 1.0934
1. S1 1.0892
2. S2 1.086
3. S3 1.0818

Author

Omkar Godbole

FXStreet Contributor

Omkar Godbole, editor and analyst, joined FXStreet after four years as a research analyst at several Indian brokerage companies.

AUD/USD bounces off weekly low on Israel-Lebanon ceasefire

AUD/USD recovers slightly from the weekly low during the Asian session on Thursday as a new Israel-Lebanon ceasefire keeps a lid on the safe-haven US Dollar. Meanwhile, the US and Iran remain at odds over key issues, which, along with hawkish Fed expectations, act as a tailwind for the buck. Furthermore, diminishing odds of an RBA rate hike in June cap the currency pair as traders keenly await the US NFP report on Friday.

USD/JPY remains close to 160.00 intervention threshold on Mideast tensions

USD/JPY struggles to find acceptance above 160.00 and retreats from a one-month high during the Asian session on Thursday amid fears that authorities will step in again to prop up the Japanese Yen. Furthermore, a new Israel-Lebanon ceasefire caps the US Dollar and supports the currency pair. However, renewed US-Iran tensions favor the USD bulls amid Fed rate hike bets and also hold back the JPY bulls from placing aggressive bets amid economic risks stemming from the Middle East conflict, suggesting that dips are likely to be bought into.

Gold bounces off one-week low; upside seems capped on Iran uncertainty

Gold recovers from a one-week low touched during the Asian session on Thursday, as news of an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire acts as a headwind for the safe-haven US Dollar. However, renewed hostilities in the Gulf, along with stalled US-Iran peace talks, keep geopolitical risks in play and should support the USD. Moreover, US-Iran tensions remain supportive of higher Crude Oil prices, fueling inflationary concerns and bolstering bets for higher interest rates for longer. This should cap the non-yielding bullion and warrants caution for bulls.

Bitcoin drops below $65K amid reinforced bear market signals

Bitcoin dipped further below $65,000 on Wednesday, with onchain data from Glassnode signaling a market firmly in a bear phase. The decline has pushed prices back into a key valuation range between the Realized Price and the True Market Mean. Glassnode noted that a key shift in market structure has also emerged.

The upside-down math of debt

In 2010, Professors Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff published a paper, Growth in a Time of Debt, which instantly went viral. The main thesis of the paper was that once a government's debt-to-GDP ratio crosses above 90%, a financial crisis and default are around the corner.

Recession on paper: What really moves the Canadian Loonie now?

Statistics Canada handed the headline writers a gift and the analysts a headache. Real GDP shrank 0.1% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, and with the fourth quarter of 2025 revised down to a 1.0% contraction, that is two negative quarters in a row, the textbook definition of a technical recession and Canada's first since the pandemic.