EUR/USD: Market may have based longer term, bulls look to the 1.1570, 2019 high


  • EUR/USD has been under pressure in New York as the dollar runs higher. 
  • EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1282, virtually flat on the day so far having travelled between 1.1245/85.

Its been a busy day for the single currency. There has been a strong correlation to the performance of European stocks which have followed Asian stocks higher with the maintained dovish tone of Powell's testimony and the FOMC minutes the main driver. However, first of all, the ECB minutes showed that the Governing Council is ready to cut interest rates, while Board member B.Coeure said earlier in the day the central bank is concerned about the protracted low inflation in the region. The broad-based USD weakness has reversed where otherwise, with EUR higher by +0.15% into the New York open. The US inflation figures tracked by the Core Consumer Price Index, (CPI), rose above estimates during June: 0.3% inter-month and 2.1% from a year earlier. The CPI prints lifted US yields which have widened the spread differentials vs. their European peers and sunk the euro a touch. 

Powell's second day of testimony has essentially echoed yesterday which had temporarily dented the Dollar's advance leading up to the event, but the Dollar was able to shake off the prospects of a rate cut, considering the US CPI data means that the Fed is unlikely going to need to cut by 50bps and 25bps are already priced in. 

 Below are some key takeaways, per Reuters from today's Q&A:

  • "Businesses are starting to hold back on investment, it has really slowed down here."
  • "We see really weak economic performance in Asia and Europe."
  • "Many of my colleagues on the FOMC have come to the view that a somewhat more accommodative policy may be appropriate."
  • "Bad outcomes have happened when central bank independence is diminished."
  • "We will always do what we think is right for the economy."


The euro is likely to be on the back foot in the absence of any hawkish ECB speeches or data surprises in the EZ and markets continue to price a 10bps in a rate cut by the ECB by the September meeting. However, longer term, should the Fed continue to cut rates and if the trade war backdrop does not improve, the dollar could come back under pressure. Should EUR/USd drift higher, bulls will look 1.1570, as the 2019 high.

EUR/USD levels

"We regard the April and May lows at 1.1110/06 as a turning point and continue to view the market as based longer term and target 1.1990 (measurement higher from the wedge)," analysts at Commerzbank argued. 

EUR/USD

Overview
Today last price 1.1253
Today Daily Change 0.0002
Today Daily Change % 0.02
Today daily open 1.1251
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 1.1285
Daily SMA50 1.124
Daily SMA100 1.1257
Daily SMA200 1.1328
Levels
Previous Daily High 1.1264
Previous Daily Low 1.1202
Previous Weekly High 1.1373
Previous Weekly Low 1.1207
Previous Monthly High 1.1414
Previous Monthly Low 1.116
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.124
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.1226
Daily Pivot Point S1 1.1213
Daily Pivot Point S2 1.1176
Daily Pivot Point S3 1.115
Daily Pivot Point R1 1.1276
Daily Pivot Point R2 1.1302
Daily Pivot Point R3 1.1339

 

 

 

 

 

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.

Feed news

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD remains below 1.1100 in thinned holiday trading

The EUR/USD pair recovered from a fresh January low of 1.1076, but remains below the 1.1100 figure, and at risk of extending its decline. Critical support at 1.1065.

EUR/USD News

AUD/USD posts lower low daily basis

The Australian dollar remains among the weakest, and at risk of breaking below a multi-decade low of 0.6670. Waiting for Australian data to be out later this week.

AUD/USD News

Cryptos in search of fresh funds after tripping lower

XRP tests the bullish scenario and clings strongly to the upside. ETH/BTC consolidates in the bullish zone and prepares its ascent to the skies. Bitcoin and Ether move away from the combat zone in search of new upward forces.

Read more

Gold prices at inflexion point, now at the mercy of the Fed, Wall Street and US elections

Gold has been consolidating with a large speculative build up in the 1560s and the largest divergence between large speculators and commercials since Jan-March 2018, signalling that the market could be at an inflexion point.

Gold News

USD/JPY bounces from session lows confirming breakout on charts

USD/JPY is currently trading near 119.20, having found bids at 110.08 in early Asia. The bounce has confirmed a flag breakout on the 5-minute chart and opened the doors for 110.34. The bullish view would be invalidated if the spot finds acceptance below 110.15. 

USD/JPY News

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures