|

EUR/USD looks depressed around 1.1200 ahead of FOMC

  • EUR/USD drops further and records new 2021 low near 1.1190.
  • US revised Q3 GDP came at 2.1% QoQ; Claims rose by 199K WoW.
  • October’s PCE, final Consumer Sentiment comes up next.

The tenacious upside in the greenback forced EUR/USD to lose further ground and record new 16-month low at 1.1192 on Wednesday.

EUR/USD remains offered ahead of FOMC

In the meantime, the selloff in EUR/USD remains everything but abated, down for the third week in a row and navigating the negative territory for the fourth straight month so far.

Indeed, the Fed-ECB policy divergence continues to lend wings to the buck and pushes the US Dollar Index to new cycle peaks in levels just shy of the round level at 97.00, while higher US yields across the curve also add to the indefatigable upside moment in the dollar.

In the docket, earlier figures from the IFO survey in Germany saw the Business Climate easing to 96.5 in November, which has also put the pair under extra pressure. In the US, MBA Mortgage Applications rose 1.8% in the week to November 19, Initial Claims rose by 199K in the week to November 20, Durable Goods Orders contracted at a monthly 0.5% in October and another revision of GDP figures now sees the economy expanding 2.1% QoQ in the July-September period.

Later in the session, inflation figures tracked by the PCE are due seconded by the final reading of the November Consumer Sentiment, all ahead of the publication of the FOMC Minutes of the November 2-3 meeting.

EUR/USD levels to watch

So far, spot is losing 0.49% at 1.1192 and faces the next up barrier at 1.1322 (10-day SMA) followed by 1.1452 (20-day SMA) and finally 1.1464 (weekly high Nov.15). On the other hand, a break below 1.1186 (2021 low Nov.24) would target 1.1185 (monthly low Jul.1 2020) en route to 1.1168 (low Jun.19 2020).

Author

Pablo Piovano

Born and bred in Argentina, Pablo has been carrying on with his passion for FX markets and trading since his first college years.

More from Pablo Piovano
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD gains traction near  0.7100 as the post-Fed USD rally pauses

AUD/USD finds fresh buyers and retakes 0.7100 in the Asian session on Thursday as the US Dollar pauses its hawkish Fed-inspired rally to its highest level since late July. However, RBA rate-hike bets and hopes for US-Iran diplomatic efforts lift risk sentiment and support the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar and the major.

USD/JPY reverses a dip below 156.00 as focus shifts to BoJ

USD/JPY is reversing a brief dip below 156.00 in the Asian session on Thursday, looking to snap a three-day winning streak to a nearly two-week top set the previous day. The US Dollar pauses following the post-Fed rally to seven-week highs, while a more hawkish repricing of the BoJ's policy normalization path supports the Japanese Yen. This keeps the pair's upside limited, with the focus now shifting to the BoJ policy decision due on Friday.

Gold: Upside appears capped by $4,400

Gold climbs sharply and clinches fresh weekly peaks on Thursday, although the bull run seems to have met some initial hurdle around the $4,400 zone per troy ounce. The yellow metal’s rebound reverses three daily declines in a row and follows the modest retracement in the US Dollar as well as another negative performance of crude oil prices.

BoE recap: A cautious stance amid rising inflation risks

The Bank of England left Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% but delivered a distinctly hawkish message as its inflation outlook deteriorated sharply.

One hike down, more to come? The Fed’s new rate path says yes

The Federal Reserve (Fed) raised its Fed Fund Target Range (FFTR) range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% in a unanimous decision, saying the move would support a timelier return to its 2% inflation goal.

How Japan became the World's Banker and why that era may be ending

Japan's ultra-low interest rates helped finance trillions of dollars in global investments for more than a decade, making the Japanese Yen one of the world’s cheapest sources of funding. With the Bank of Japan expected to tighten policy again this week, that advantage may be entering a new phase. While most major economies raised interest rates, Japan remained the world's outlier.