EUR/USD: Institutional risk priced in, now slightly unwinding – Danske Bank

Matías Salord FXStreet

Analysts from Danske Bank, see the EUR/USD pair trading in the range 1.07-1.11, with risks tilted to the upper end after recent events.

Key Quotes:

“In our view, the recent underperformance of EUR/USD has clearly derived from infighting among EU institutions and concerns related to what we regard as necessary monetary and fiscal measures. This has meant a negative risk premium has been building in EUR/USD spot. However, for a few weeks this story has been well priced into both spot and options markets and we have kept our slightly more upbeat assessment.”

“Our longer-term assessment is not driven by EU budget talks or the ECB but rather by the outlook for global reflationary trends, as reflation lessens debt burdens, leads to smoother politics and financial flows tend to be EUR positive. We continue to see EUR/USD as trading around 1.09 +/-2 figures but financial trends towards reflation and calming European politics may put us in the upper end of such a band, at least for a few weeks.”

Author

Matías Salord

FXStreet

Matías started in financial markets in 2008, after graduating in Economics. He was trained in chart analysis and then became an educator. He also studied Journalism. He started writing analyses for specialized websites before joining FXStreet.

EUR/USD eases marginally, back to 1.1800

EUR/USD navigates a narrow range on Thursday, hovering around the 1.1800 neighbourhood in a context of humble gains in the US Dollar. The pair’s lacklustre performance come amid the unabated trade uncertainty, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the cautious tone from the ECB’s Lagarde.

GBP/USD retreats from tops, approaching 1.3540

GBP/USD partially sets aside Wednesday’s strong advance and recedes to the 1.3540 region on Thursday. Cable’s modest retracement follows the equally acceptable gains in the Greenback, while investors continue to pencil in a potential BoE rate cut in March.

Gold clings to gains just below $5,200, focus on geopolitics

Gold is edging modestly higher on Thursday, adding to Wednesday’s uptick and holding just below the $5,200 mark per troy ounce against the backdrop of modest gains in the US Dollar. In the meantime, attention is turning to the geopolitical scenario following US-Iran nuclear talks.