|

EUR/USD grinds higher past 1.0900 ahead of Fed Minutes, NFP

  • EUR/USD stays defensive after posting consecutive three quarterly gains.
  • Market’s lack of conviction in Fed’s hawkish bias, softer US inflation signals underpin Euro pair’s recovery.
  • ECB policymakers’ defense of rate hike clues, despite less market acceptance, also propel EUR/USD price.
  • US ISM Manufacturing PMI, final readings of June’s Eurozone, Germa HCOB PMIs eyed for intraday directions.

EUR/USD struggles to defend the previous weekly, as well as monthly and quarterly, gains as traders begin the key week on a cautious not around 1.0910-15 amid early Monday in Asia. In doing so, the Euro pair reassess the recent odds favoring the buyers ahead of the top-tier data/events from the US.

On Friday, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge prod hawkish expectations from the US central bank with the smallest yearly gain in six months. The same joined absence of any major hawkish comments from the US central bank officials, after a slew of Fed statements earlier in the last week, to prod the EUR/USD bulls. Even so, the major currency pair ended the last week, month and quarter on the positive side.

That said, US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, for May, came in at 0.3% MoM and 4.6% YoY versus market expectations of reprinting the 0.4% and 4.7% figures for monthly and yearly prior readings.

On the other hand, the preliminary Eurozone HICP rose to 0.3% MoM versus 0.0% expected and prior while the yearly figures eased to 5.5% from 5.6% market forecasts and 6.1% previous readings. Further, the Core HICP also softened to 0.3% MoM and 5.4% YoY from 0.7% and 5.5% expected respectively, versus 0.2% and 5.3% prior in that order.

It’s worth noting that the European Central Bank (ECB) tried defending their rate hike bias but softer inflation data and looming fears of Germany’s recession restrict markets from believing in them, which in turn test the EUR/USD bulls. Alternatively, the US data isn’t also too impressive but the Fed policymakers are comparatively more hawkish and have been received well.

Hence, EUR/USD traders may witness hardships in extending the latest recovery should this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Monetary policy meeting Minutes and the US jobs report offer upbeat signals. It’s worth noting that today’s final readings of Germany and Eurozone HCOB PMIs for June and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for the said month will entertain intraday traders.

Technical analysis

A daily closing beyond a downward-sloping resistance line from June 22, close to 1.0920 by the press time, becomes necessary for the EUR/USD bulls to retake control.

Additional important levels

Overview
Today last price1.0912
Today Daily Change0.0002
Today Daily Change %0.02%
Today daily open1.091
 
Trends
Daily SMA201.0857
Daily SMA501.0871
Daily SMA1001.0819
Daily SMA2001.0591
 
Levels
Previous Daily High1.0932
Previous Daily Low1.0835
Previous Weekly High1.0977
Previous Weekly Low1.0835
Previous Monthly High1.1012
Previous Monthly Low1.0662
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%1.0895
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%1.0872
Daily Pivot Point S11.0853
Daily Pivot Point S21.0796
Daily Pivot Point S31.0756
Daily Pivot Point R11.095
Daily Pivot Point R21.0989
Daily Pivot Point R31.1046

Author

Anil Panchal

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

More from Anil Panchal
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD gathers recovery momentum, trades near 1.1750

Following the correction seen in the second half of the previous week, EUR/USD gathers bullish momentum and trades in positive territory near 1.1750. The US Dollar (USD) struggles to attract buyers and supports the pair as investors await Tuesday's GDP data ahead of the Christmas holiday. 

GBP/USD knocks ten-week highs ahead of holiday slowdown

GBP/USD found room on the high side on Monday, kicking off a holiday-shortened trading week with a fresh spat of Greenback weakness, bolstering the Pound Sterling into its highest bids in ten weeks. Pound traders are largely brushing off the latest interest rate cut from the Bank of England as the UK’s central bank policy strategy leaves the water murky for rate-cut watchers.

Gold buying remains unabated; fresh all-time peak and counting

Gold builds on the previous day's blowout rally through the $4,400 mark and continues scaling new record highs through the Asian session on Tuesday. Bets for more interest rate cuts by the US Fed, renewed US Dollar selling bias, and rising geopolitical uncertainties turn out to be key factors driving flows towards the bullion. Traders now look to the delayed release of the revised US Q3 GDP print and US Durable Goods Orders for a fresh impetus.

ETHZilla sells over 24,000 ETH, community reacts to shift away from DAT strategy

Peter Thiel-backed ETHZilla announced it sold 24,291 ETH for ~$74.5 million to redeem outstanding senior secured convertible notes. "We plan to use all, or a significant portion, of the proceeds to fund the redemption," ETHZilla noted in a Monday X post.

Ten questions that matter going into 2026

2026 may be less about a neat “base case” and more about a regime shift—the market can reprice what matters most (growth, inflation, fiscal, geopolitics, concentration). The biggest trap is false comfort: the same trades can look defensive… right up until they become crowded.

XRP steadies above $1.90 support as fund inflows and retail demand rise

Ripple (XRP) is stable above support at $1.90 at the time of writing on Monday, after several attempts to break above the $2.00 hurdle failed to materialize last week. Meanwhile, institutional interest in the cross-border remittance token has remained steady.