EUR/USD firming as traders await US President Biden stimulus speech

EUR/USD is a touch stronger mid-week as investors brace for the Nonfarm Payrolls at the end of the week and US President Joe Biden who is slated on Wednesday afternoon to deliver a speech about his “American Jobs Plan” in Pittsburg. 

At the time of writing, EUR/USD has firmed by 0.2% and trades at 1.1739 having travelled between a low of 1.1704 and a high of 1.1760. 

The US dollar index, DXY, initially hit a one-year high in Asia to 93.4370.

The index was on track to post its biggest quarterly gain since June 2018, up around 3.5%, as investors bet fiscal stimulus and aggressive vaccinations will help the United States lead a global pandemic recovery. 

The greenback, however, established a floor following data that showed that the US economy added more than 500,000 private-sector jobs in February. 

US private payrolls increased by 517,000 jobs last month, the ADP National Employment Report showed on Wednesday, slightly lower than market forecasts.

Data for February was revised up to show 176,000 jobs added instead of the initially reported 117,000.

This paints an improving picture of the labour market as traders await in anticipation of the Nonfarm Payrolls event on Good Friday. 

The US dollar has given back a significant amount of ground leading into the event, almost 62% of the latest bullish impulse in DXY.

This offers room for the upside extension on inline or better data which would be a testament to the expectations of the market of a faster-improving economy and inflation risk. 

The euro, meanwhile, had fallen to a five-month low versus the dollar at $1.1704 before firming on the day.

On the quarter, the euro was on track for its weakest showing since September 2019.

Data of recent trade has shown that the Euro area and German inflation increased in March.

The preliminary Consumer Price Index came for the euro area came in at 1.3% YoY, just below expectations and much higher than the 0.9% print for February.

In Germany, CPI came in at 2.0% YoY, up from 1.6% in February to the highest level in almost two years.

But the move was in the headline component with the sharp increase in fuel costs.

Unemployment came in at -8K (-3K expected).

However, the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde dismissed the upward pressure in yields saying that markets "can test as much as they want.'' 

Markets are of the view that the central bank is not about to shift from its purchases.

All in all, for the euro to gain any traction, Europe will need to start to play its part in the global recovery before the dollar starts to soften again. 

For the day ahead, the US President, Joe Biden, will be the focus.

At 4:20 p.m. Eastern, Biden is set to outline how he intends to pay for a $3 trillion to $4 trillion infrastructure plan, after earlier this week saying 90% of adult Americans would be eligible for vaccination by April 19.

Markets are especially looking for any suggestions of tax hikes for corporates and the wealthy and perhaps a Capital Gains Tax hike too.