• EUR/USD erases Thursday’s gains, losing 0.53% on Friday.
  • US Consumer Sentiment improved, though Retail Sales slowed down.
  • EUR/USD Price Forecast: Break above the 20-day EMA, the major could challenge 0.9800; otherwise, it could test the YTD low.

The EUR/USD losses its grip around the 20-day EMA and edges lower as the North American session progresses, amidst a firm US dollar, following the release of a US hot inflation report on Thursday, while mixed US economic data, and hawkish Fed commentary, bolstered the buck. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at 0.9724.

Friday’s price action witnessed the EUR/USD opening around the highs of the day of 0.9808, above the 20-day EMA, but buyers unable to hold the fort paved the way for further losses.

EUR/USD falls despite weaker US Retail Sales; consumer sentiment improved

The US Commerce Department reported that Retail Sales stagnated in September, with figures coming at 0% MoM, below estimates of 0.2%, while on an annual based, decelerated even further, from 9,15% to 8.41%, reflecting the shock of Fed’s monetary policy.

Later, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment improved steadily in October, as the index jumped to 59.8 from 58.6., though inflation expectations were upward revised, with prices foreseen to rise 5.1% from 4.7%.

The data barely moved the EUR/USD, though Fed speaking, boosted the greenback. Fed’s Geroge, Daly, and Cook reiterated that inflation is too high and that monetary policy needs to be restrictive for longer to tackle inflation. Daly added that she estimates the Federal funds rate (FFR, peaking at 4.50-5.0%, while Lisa Cook expressed that the Fed should avoid a “stop and go” approach to raising interest rates.

Aside from this, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted recessions in Italy and Germany in 2023. Therefore, if it looked gloomier, the Eurozone scenario now looks even worse. Eurozone data revealed in the European session saw Spain’s inflation heightening less than estimates, while France’s data followed suit.

Some ECB speakers crossed wires. ECB’s Vasle said 75 bps in October and December might be appropriate, while ECB’s Centeno added that the ECB must be “tough” on inflation while suggesting that QT discussions should be pushed to the following year.

EUR/USD Price Forecast

The EUR/USD daily chart illustrates the major stalled at the 20-day EMA, which exacerbated a fall towards the 0.9720 area. Key support lies at 0.9700, which, once cleared, could open the door for YTD low re-test at 0.9535. On the flip side, if the EUR/USD reclaims 0.9786, the major could challenge 0.9800.

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

USD/JPY drops toward 142.00 ahead of BoJ policy decision

USD/JPY drops toward 142.00 ahead of BoJ policy decision

USD/JPY has turned south, approaching 142.00 in the Asian session on Friday. Markets turn risk-averse and flock to the safety in the Japanese Yen while the Fed-BoJ policy divergence and hot Japan's CPI data also support the Yen ahead of the BoJ policy verdict. 

USD/JPY News
AUD/USD bears attack 0.6800 amid PBOC's status-quo, cautious mood

AUD/USD bears attack 0.6800 amid PBOC's status-quo, cautious mood

AUD/USD attacks 0.6800 in Friday's Asian trading, extending its gradual retreat after the PBOC unexpectedly left mortgage lending rates unchanged in September. A cautious market mood also adds to the weight on the Aussie. Fedspeak eyed. 

AUD/USD News
Gold price treads water below record peak, awaits Fedspeak

Gold price treads water below record peak, awaits Fedspeak

Gold price hovers below the all-time peak touched earlier this week amid a bearish US Dollar and rising bets for more upcoming rate cuts by the Fed. Concerns over an economic downturn in China keep the safe-haven Gold price afloat. Fedspeak remains on tap. 

Gold News
Bank of Japan set to keep rates on hold after July’s hike shocked markets

Bank of Japan set to keep rates on hold after July’s hike shocked markets

The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its short-term interest rate target between 0.15% and 0.25% on Friday, following the conclusion of its two-day monetary policy review. The decision is set to be announced during the early Asian session. 

Read more
XRP eyes gains as Ripple gears up for stablecoin launch, Grayscale XRP Trust notes rising NAV

XRP eyes gains as Ripple gears up for stablecoin launch, Grayscale XRP Trust notes rising NAV

Ripple (XRP) gained 2.3% since the start of the week. The altcoin’s gains are likely powered by key market movers that include Ripple USD (RUSD) stablecoin, Grayscale XRP Trust performance and the demand for the altcoin among institutional investors.

Read more
Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know

Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know

VERIFIED In this review, the FXStreet team provides an independent and thorough analysis based on direct testing and real experiences with Moneta Markets – an excellent broker for novice to intermediate forex traders who want to broaden their knowledge base.

Read More

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures