EUR/USD declines below the 20-day SMA and threatens the 100-day SMA

EUR/USD tallies a third stright daily loss, and fell to the 1.09370 level.
The Labour market in the US and in the EUR showed positive results this week.
All eyes are now on Friday’s US NFPs.

Patricio Martín FXStreet

The EUR/USD is trading in negative territory after 3 consecutive days of losses, fueled by a stronger USD following robust labour market data. The greenback, measured by the DXY index, gained ground in the middle of the week and jumped to its highest label since July 7.

According to, Automatic Data Processing (ADP), Inc released the US Employment Change for July, which measures the change in the number of employed people in the US, came in at 324k, better than the expected 189k but below the previous 455k. With this in mind, hot labour market data may set the tone for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to consider one additional hike in 2023, and that is what is driving the USD upwards.

That being said, Jobless Claims on Thursday and the Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday will give additional clues to the markets regarding the labour situation in the US and will continue placing their bets for the next Fed meeting. As for now, according to the CME FedWatch tool, the most likely case is that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) won't hike in September or November.

For the Eurozone’s side, Spain released the Unemployment Change for July, which showed that the number of unemployed workers added during the previous month, came in better than expected. This comes after Germany also reported strong labour figures on Tuesday. Its worth noting that Christine Lagarde highlighted that the labour market remains robust and also mentioned that incoming data will be considered for the following interest rate decisions, so strong data may fuel hawkish bets on the European Central Bank (ECB). For the rest of the week, Services PMIs from European countries will be released on Thursday, giving further guidance to both markets and the ECB regarding the economic activity situation in the zone.

EUR/USD Levels to watch

According to the daily chart, bears are gaining ground as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in negative territory and has a slope below its midline. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) prints strong growing red bars indicating that bulls are not in the scene.

Resistance levels: 1.0950, 1.1000, 1.1075 (20-day SMA).
Support levels: 1.0913 (100-day SMA), 1.0900, 1.0850.

EUR/USD Daily chart

EUR/USD

Overview
Today last price	1.0938
Today Daily Change	-0.0047
Today Daily Change %	-0.43
Today daily open	1.0985

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.107
Daily SMA50	1.0923
Daily SMA100	1.091
Daily SMA200	1.073

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.1003
Previous Daily Low	1.0952
Previous Weekly High	1.115
Previous Weekly Low	1.0944
Previous Monthly High	1.1276
Previous Monthly Low	1.0834
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.0972
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.0984
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.0957
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.0929
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.0906
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.1008
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.1031
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.1058

Author

Patricio Martín

FXStreet

Patricio is an economist from Argentina passionate about global finance and understanding the daily movements of the markets.

AUD/USD eyes 100-SMA hurdle near 0.7035 as hawkish RBA counters firmer USD

AUD/USD regains positive traction on Tuesday and climbs to 0.7030 during the Asian session, reversing the previous day's corrective slide from a one-month high as hawkish RBA rate expectations continue to support the Aussie. Spot prices, however, remain below the 100-day SMA pivotal resistance amid a firmer US Dollar as traders brace for Australia’s September CPI report on Wednesday ahead of the Fed rate decision.

USD/JPY sticks to modest gains above 157.50 as traders await Fed, BoJ meetings

USD/JPY attracts buyers for the third straight day, recovering further from a one-month low ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC decision and the BoJ policy update on Friday. Meanwhile, expectations that the BoJ may hold off on aggressive rate hikes weigh on the Japanese Yen, and the US Dollar advances to a nearly two-week high, supporting the currency pair.

Gold bears flirt with $4,000 amid sustained USD buying ahead of FOMC decision

Gold meets with a fresh supply during the Asian session, stalling the previous day's modest bounce from the vicinity of a three-month low amid a firmer US Dollar. The precious metal, however, defends the $4,000 psychological mark as traders now seem hesitant and opt to wait for the outcome of the two-day FOMC policy meeting on Wednesday.

Pi Network stalls as weak crypto sentiment caps recovery

Pi Network (PI) holds steady above $0.0760 at press time on Tuesday, stalling after a roughly 2% rebound the previous day. The broader market's weak sentiment and reduced trading volume weigh on the PI token. The technical outlook is bearish, with price capped below a long-term resistance trendline and weak momentum.

France tests the Euro's nerve: What the OAT spread is telling FX traders

France's 10-year borrowing premium over Germany hit its widest since the 2011 debt crisis last week. With public spending above 57% of GDP, unrest on the streets and a presidential election next spring, cuts look unlikely. If Paris cannot trim, the bill may be paid quietly through financial repression.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.