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EUR/USD climbs over 1.0780 on broad-market risk appetite recovery

EUR/USD climbs into positive territory for the week.
Rate cut bets increase on rising US unemployment claims.
US consumer sentiment due on Friday.

Joshua Gibson FXStreet

EUR/USD gained ground on Thursday, finding upside on the week after the US Dollar (USD) broadly fell back after rising US Initial Jobless Claims sparked renewed hope of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed).

US Initial Jobless Claims rose to 231K for the week ended May 3, the highest number of new jobless benefits seekers week-on-week since last August. With possible signs of weakness appearing in the US job market, rate-hungry markets pivoted into risk appetite.

At current cut, the CME’s FedWatch Tool shows interest rate markets are pricing in nearly 70% odds of at least a quarter-point rate cut at the Fed’s September rate call. Rate traders are also pricing in 67% chances of a second rate cut from the Fed before the end of 2024.

Fed Daly: Considerable uncertainty about inflation over the next three months

Despite broad-market hopes for Fed rate trims this year, Fedspeak continues to lean into caution. San Francisco Fed President Mary C. Daly noted on Thursday that the inflation outlook remains uncertain, and recent downturns in employment data appear to be low-risk.

EUR/USD technical outlook

EUR/USD rallied on Thursday as the pair rebounds from the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0740, sending the pair into the green for the week, up a quarter of a percent from Monday’s early opening bids and testing 1.0790.

Daily candlesticks warn of stiff resistance for bullish momentum as EUR/USD approaches the 200-day EMA at 1.0788, and the pair has struggled to develop meaningful momentum, grinding from the last swing low into the 1.0600 handle.

EUR/USD hourly chart

EUR/USD daily chart

EUR/USD

Overview
Today last price	1.0785
Today Daily Change	0.0037
Today Daily Change %	0.34
Today daily open	1.0748

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.0696
Daily SMA50	1.079
Daily SMA100	1.0835
Daily SMA200	1.0794

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.0757
Previous Daily Low	1.0735
Previous Weekly High	1.0812
Previous Weekly Low	1.065
Previous Monthly High	1.0885
Previous Monthly Low	1.0601
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.0744
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.0749
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.0736
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.0725
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.0714
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.0759
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.0769
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.0781

Author

Joshua Gibson

FXStreet

Joshua joins the FXStreet team as an Economics and Finance double major from Vancouver Island University with twelve years' experience as an independent trader focusing on technical analysis.

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