EUR/USD braces for PMI data with mild gains near 1.0850 as US Dollar traces softer yields

EUR/USD picks up bids to pare the biggest daily loss in a month, marked the previous day, as markets brace for the top-tier EU/US data on early Wednesday. With this, the Euro pair rebounds from the lowest levels in 10 weeks, marked the previous day, while recently rising to 1.0855.

Apart from the pre-data positioning, the market’s cautious optimism and the previous day’s upbeat Eurozone Current Account data also underpin the Euro pair’s latest rebound from the multi-day low. Furthermore, a pullback in the US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar also allows the major currency pair to lick its wounds.

S&P500 Futures rise 0.20% intraday to near 4,410 as it reverses the previous day’s pullback from the weekly top amid slightly positive sentiment. On the same line, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields dropped two basis points (bps) to 4.31% while extending the previous day’s U-turn from the highest level since 2007. With the downbeat yields and the cautious optimism, the US Dollar Index (DXY) retreats from the 10-week high marked the previous day to around 103.50 at the latest.

Headlines surrounding a likely improvement in the US-China ties and widely chattered policy pivot for major central banks seem to underpin the recent optimism in the market. That said, Eurozone Current Account marked a strong rebound for June as the non-seasonally adjusted figures improve to €36.77B from €-12.46B (revised). The same underpins hopes of strong inflation and growth numbers from the Old Continent and pushes back dovish bias about the European Central Bank (ECB), which in turn favors the Euro buyers.

On the contrary, strong US data and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin guard the EUR/USD pair’s recovery ahead of the preliminary readings of the August month Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) for the Eurozone, Germany and the US.

On Tuesday, the US Existing Home Sales came in as -2.2% MoM for July versus -3.3% prior while the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index matched the -7.0 market forecast for August compared to -9.0% previous readings. Following the data, Fed’s Barkin emphasized achieving the 2.0% inflation target while challenging the US recession concerns by stating, per Reuters, “If the US were to have a recession, it would likely be a ‘less-severe’ one,” which in turn prods the risk-on mood. The policymaker also added, “Fed must be open to the possibility that the economy will begin to reaccelerate rather than slow, with potential implications for the US central bank's inflation fight.”

On a different page, the cautious mood ahead of Friday’s top-tier central bankers’ speeches at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium event also allows the EUR/USD to pare the recent losses.

Technical analysis

Failure to break the 1.0835-50 support zone comprising an ascending trend line from late November 2022 and a horizontal area comprising lows marked in the last two months keeps the EUR/USD buyers hopeful to revisit the 1.0900 upside hurdle. However, the 100-DMA level of 1.0930 may challenge the Euro buyers afterward.

Alternatively, a downside break of 1.0835 will need validation from the 200-DMA support of around 1.0800 to convince sellers.