|

EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Wave C of a bearish Measured Move unfolds

  • EUR/JPY continues declining and has formed a bearish pattern called a Measured Move. 
  • It is composed of three waves – wave C appears to be in mid development.
  • The bearish 4-hour chart echoes weak technicals observed on the weekly chart.  

EUR/JPY is down over a third of a percent, trading in the 163.70s on Wednesday, on the back of a mixture of probable intervention by the Japanese authorities to strengthen the Japanese Yen (JPY) and more dovish commentary from rate-setters at the European Central Bank (ECB).  

The 4-hour chart is showing a bearish ABC Measured Move pattern forming which looks like it probably still has lower to go. 

Euro versus Japanese Yen: 4-hour chart

If wave C is the same length as wave A, which is often the case, the Measured Move could stretch down to a target situated at about 162.40, just below the 200-4hr Simple Moving Average (SMA). 

The pair has just completed a long red bearish Marubozu Japanese candlestick pattern which adds a further bearish tone to the chart. Even if there is a pullback after the sell-off it will probably only go as high as the midpoint of the Marubozu candle at 163.90 before probably continuing lower. 

The short-term trend remains unclear but a break below the lows of wave A at 163.32 would provide confirmation shifting the odds in favor of a downtrend and a continuation of wave C. 

The acute bearish divergence with the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) on the Weekly chart as reported in a previous article, is further evidence supporting more downside.

Author

Joaquin Monfort

Joaquin Monfort is a financial writer and analyst with over 10 years experience writing about financial markets and alt data. He holds a degree in Anthropology from London University and a Diploma in Technical analysis.

More from Joaquin Monfort
Share:

Editor's Picks

160.80: Japanese Yen remains close to nearly two-year lows

USD/JPY inches lower after four days of gains, trading around 160.60 during the Asian hours. The USD/JPY pair surged to 160.80 the previous day, marking its highest level since July 2024 and significantly heightening speculation that Japanese authorities could soon intervene to support the struggling Yen.

Australian Dollar remains in positive territory after paring recent gains

AUD/USD pares its daily gains, remaining in the positive territory and trading around 0.7010 during the European hours. The pair appreciated as the Australian Dollar received support from prevailing hawkish sentiment surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy outlook.

Gold retreats below $4,250 as USD benefits from hawkish Fed

Gold (XAU/USD) stays on the back foot in the second half of the day and trades in negative territory below $4,250. Although easing tensions in the Middle East help XAU/USD limit its losses, the broad-based USD strength in the Fed aftermath doesn't allow it to gain traction.

Bitcoin slips below $64,000 as hawkish Fed stance weighs on risk appetite

Bitcoin remains under pressure, extending its correction, trading below $64,000. The US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but struck a hawkish tone on Wednesday, dampening the risk sentiment.

Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.

The next big AI trade may not be about chips or software

Artificial intelligence has already created some of the biggest winners in modern market history. Chipmakers have surged, data centre construction is booming, and electricity demand forecasts are changing globally.