EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Mixed market structure, bears waiting to pounce


  • EUR/JPY bears are lurking seeking an entry on the 4-hour time frame. 
  • Bulls will be back in control on a break of weekly resistance. 

EUR/JPY is stalling on the longer-term northerly trajectory and is hamstrung below bearish structure on the weekly and 4-hour charts. 

The following is a top-down analysis that offers a bearish bias from a swing trading perspective that requires the 4-hour chart's bullish trend to develop a little further into resistance so that a higher probability set-up could emerge. 

Monthly chart

The price is stalling within the monthly impulse that was bourne from a correction to prior highs.

The price would be expected to move higher, eventually, but there is a bearish structure on the lower time frames.

Weekly chart

The weekly chart shows the price has respected the rules of the W-formations in two instances, W-1 and W-2.

On both occasions, the price pulled back to the necklines of both patterns. Expectations would be for an upside continuation from this juncture.

However, there is a bearish bias with the price trapped below resistance and considering the bearish engulfing candlestick. 

Daily chart

On the daily chart, the price is trapped between support and resistance, but there is a bearish bias while below the 21-moving average and resistance.

4-hour chart

From a 4-hour perspective, the price could yet extend higher to the 21-DMA/resistance before gravity kicks in and subsequently hamstrings the market back to test the neckline of what would be a W-formation. 

Bears could capitalise on the prospects from the resistance zone and target the neckline's confluence with the Fibonacci retracement levels for a high probability setup.

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