|

EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Bear's stars alligning for both short-term and swing-trading opportunities

Developing story

EUR/JPY has been in a long term bull trend since the start of may earlier this year and it has reached a supply zone on the monthly chart. 

So far, the bulls have managed to hold their ground, but they are tiring as momentum slows down in the 126 handle. 

This gives rise to another possible bearish correction on the monthly bullish trend

If one develops, there will be opportunities on both the short term charts and medium-term charts that offer day trading and swing trading setups.

The following is a top-down technical analysis of the euro and cross. 

In the immediate future, there are signs of a day trade in the making, but let us start from a market structure analysis from the monthly and work out way down to the hourly chart and potential trade setup.

EUR/JPY monthly chart

From a monthly perspective, EUR/JPY is in a supply zone and following such a long period of being in a bullish trajectory, a 38.2% Fibonacci to prior resistance can be expected.

The cross is also failing at daily support and the wick could be filled in:

EUR/JPY resistance structures

EUR/JPY has its work cut out below critical resistance structures.

EUR/USD daily chart

The euro is testing trendline support in supply territory, a break of which reinforces the downside case for the euro crosses. 

EUR/USD 4HR

The price is testing back above the trendline at resistance and familiar Fibonacci retracement levels that would typically to hold up the correction. 

EUR/USD 1HR resistance

A series of impulses and corrections so far point to correction at resistance, which brings us to the EUR/JPY cross...

EUR/JPY day trade lining up 

The conditions are all aligning for a short setup on the lower time frames and the euro is under pressure vs the greenback.

The hourly chart shows the price creeping towards resistance where a deceleration will open prospects for an entry on a lower time frame, such as the 15-minutes chart.

Price action will be monitored for a favourable entry with preferable risk-reward.

More to come from both a day trade and swing trading perspective as the price action evolves...

Update: Breakeven

The above analysis was carried out in the following article which ended up being breakeven.

Author

Ross J Burland

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

More from Ross J Burland
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD recovers to 1.1750 region as 2025 draws to a close

Following the bearish action seen in the European session on Wednesday, EUR/USD regains its traction and recovery to the 1.1750 region. Nevertheless, the pair's volatility remains low as trading conditions thin out on the last day of the year.

GBP/USD stays weak near 1.3450 on modest USD recovery

GBP/USD remains under modest beairsh pressure and fluctuates at around 1.3450 on Wednesday. The US Dollar finds fresh demand due to the end-of-the-year position adjustments, weighing on the pair amid the pre-New Year trading lull. 

Gold retreats to $4,300 area, looks to post monthly gains

Gold stays on the back foot on the last day of 2025 and trades near $4,300, possibly pressured by profit-taking and position adjustments. Nevertheless, XAU/USD remains on track to post gains for December and extend its winning streak into a fifth consecutive month.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP prepare for a potential New Year rebound

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple are holding steady on Wednesday after recording minor gains on the previous day. Technically, Bitcoin could extend gains within a triangle pattern while Ethereum and Ripple face critical overhead resistance. 

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).