EUR/JPY down move over? – Commerzbank

Pablo Piovano FXStreet

In view of Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, EUR/JPY could have bottomed out in recent lows in the mid-116.00s.

Key Quotes

“EUR/JPY remains on the defensive very near term, its recent low at 116.42 was not confirmed by the daily RSI and we have a second 13 count and TD support at 116.36 - we therefore suspect the down move may be over for now. Initial resistance is the 20 day ma at 117.99 and the 120.06 25th July low. Key short term resistance is the 55 day ma and the 3 month downtrend at 120.10/39. The market will need to regain this on a closing basis to reassert upside interest”.

“TD support at 116.36 guards the 114.86 2017 low. The break lower last week saw the market erode a 2012-2019 support line and this leaves a negative bias entrenched while below the downtrend”.

Author

Pablo Piovano

FXStreet

Born and bred in Argentina, Pablo has been carrying on with his passion for FX markets and trading since his first college years.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7000; remains close to monthly top

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7000 during the Asian session on Friday, trading just below the previous day's monthly low amid diverging forces. A hawkish RBA continues to support the Aussie, while the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near a three-week low. However, oil-driven inflation fears reinforce Fed hike bets, which, along with geopolitical risks, could benefit the safe-haven buck and cap the currency pair.

USD/JPY bounces off one-month low; climbs to 157.00 amid reviving USD demand

USD/JPY rebounds from the 156.00 neighborhood, or a one-month low touched during Friday’s Asian session, with bulls looking to extend momentum beyond 157.00 amid the emergence of some US Dollar buying. Meanwhile, Japan's National CPI rose to a nine-month peak and reaffirmed BoJ rate-hike bets, which could support the Japanese Yen and cap gains for the currency pair.

Gold treads water around $4,000

Gold prices maintain its offered stance in place at the end of the week, hovering around the key $4,000 threshold per troy ounce. The persistent selling bias in the precious metal comes amid decent gains in the US Dollar and an acceptable rebound in US Treasury yields across the curve, all alongside further upside traction in crude oil prices.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin holds the 50-day EMA as Ethereum and XRP face structural resistance

Bitcoin gradually ticks up on Friday, trading above $81,000. The Crypto King has recently defended structural support near $80,000, reinforcing the prevailing bullish outlook. Ethereum similarly edges higher above $2,400, while Ripple trades above $1.32 after testing support around $1.30.

The French bond panic is overdone. Here's what the market is misreading

France's 10-year government bond yield has climbed above 5%, reigniting fears of a sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone. With public debt exceeding €3.5 trillion, persistent budget deficits and a fragmented political landscape, investors are increasingly questioning the French government's ability to stabilize its finances.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.