“A wall of maturing debt and a surge in seasonal demand for cash will test China’s financial markets this month, putting pressure on the central bank to ensure sufficient liquidity,” said Bloomberg News Wire during early Tuesday morning in Asia.
Key quotes (from Bloomberg)
Demand for liquidity may total about 4.5 trillion yuan ($708 billion) in January, 18% more than the amount seen last year, according to calculations by Bloomberg based on official data and analysts’ estimates.
An increase in the amount of policy loans coming due and demand for cash to be spent during the Lunar New Year, which takes place earlier in 2022, are drivers.
A recent reduction in the reserve requirement ratio for banks could provide relief but some market watchers predict the central bank could ease again to avoid a liquidity crunch. That comes after policymakers indicated a shift from deleveraging the economy to supporting growth.
Further policy easing will be a double-edged sword for the People’s Bank of China. While such a move could soothe concerns about higher funding costs and prevent a liquidity squeeze, it may also fuel asset bubbles that Beijing wants to avoid.
Ahead of the Lunar New Year in 2019 and 2020, the authorities lowered the reserve ratio to pump in cash. However, they avoided supplying extra funds last year, stoking fears about a tighter policy stance and sending short-term funding costs soaring.
FX reaction
AUD/USD can seek solace in the news considering the sign of further liquidity from the biggest customer. That said, the pair consolidates recent losses around 0.7190, the lowest level in two days at the latest. It's worth noting that the virus-led partial lockdown in Ningbo is impacting operations of the world's largest port weighed on the market sentiment and AUD/USD prices.
Read: AUD/USD Price Analysis: A fast trip to 0.7150 is on the cards on a break of 0.7180
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