Brexit: 27-30 March the most likely trigger dates now – Danske Bank

Senior Analyst, Mikael Olai Milhøj at Danske Bank, notes that as expected, the House of Commons last night voted down both amendments to the Article 50 bill passed by the House of Lords, aimed at protecting the rights of EU citizens currently living in the UK and giving parliament a ‘meaningful’ vote on the final Brexit deal.

Key Quotes

“Also as expected, the House of Lords backed down when the bill returned to the House of Lords.” 

• This means Prime Minister Theresa May now has the power to trigger Article 50.
• Although the UK media previously reported that Theresa May could trigger Article 50 as early as this week, they now report it as being more likely by the end of month (due to a combination of the Dutch election and the Scottish nationalist Party’s spring conference at the weekend). Next week is off the table due to the celebration of the 60-year anniversary of the Rome treaty. 27-30 March are the most likely trigger dates now (last week of March). 
• As there was a large majority of Scottish who wanted to stay in the EU, the Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon announced that next week she will ‘seek authority of the Scottish Parliament to agree with the UK government the details of a section 30 order’, which will enable Scotland to hold a second independence referendum next year ‘between the autumn of 2018 and the spring of 2019’. One of the key arguments for staying in the UK in the first independence vote was EU membership. According to various media sources, PM Theresa May has rejected a referendum while negotiating Brexit with the EU."