- AUD/USD bears continue to hold the rein near the lowest since March 2009.
- The outbreak of coronavirus ex-China threatens global economic growth.
- US President Trump’s speech, Aussie private capital expenditure and the US data will be the keys to follow.
AUD/USD pulls back to 0.6550 amid the initial Asian session on Thursday. That said, the pair slumped to the fresh low since March 2009, to 0.6542, before an hour. Even if the bears are holding the reign amid coronavirus fears, a thin presence of coronavirus headlines seems to trigger the quote’s latest move.
Coronavirus continues to spread outside China…
A noticeable surge in COVID-19 cases in South Korea, Hong Kong and Europe negates a reduction in coronavirus numbers from China. The widespread outbreak of China’s coronavirus has already pushed global enterprises, Italy’s MTA and Microsoft are the latest, to flash warning of macro supply chain disturbance and challenges to the growth.
The latest news confirms 12 coronavirus cases from Canada with the first coming out from Norway.
Even so, S&P 500 Futures register 0.10% gains to 3,105 following another day of downtrend by the Wall Street benchmarks.
In addition to having a negative impact on the risk-tone, the news also weighs on the Aussie dollar due to the economy’s export-oriented nature. While the recovery in Chinese conditions could help witness and intermediate pullback, the broad pessimism can keep bears in place.
Trump, data and more COVID-19…
US President Donald Trump is up for speaking on coronavirus at 23:30 GMT and can offer noticeable moves if changed his stance from the earlier comments negating the risk to the US economy.
On the economic calendar, Australia’s Private Capital Expenditure for the fourth quarter (Q4), expected 0.4% versus -0.2% prior, will be of importance ahead of the US Durable Goods Orders and GDP data. “We estimate durable goods orders rose at a solid 1.5% m/m rate in Jan, although our above-consensus forecast mainly reflects an exaggerated boost to civilian aircraft orders from the seasonal adjustment factors. We expect the rise in civilian aircraft orders to more than offset a drop in defense orders after their surge in December. We forecast little change in core capex orders. Separately, we expect jobless claims to tick up 8K to a still-low 218k level for the week of Feb 22k,” said TD Securities.
Technical Analysis
A downward sloping trend line connecting lows marked on January 07 and 31, at 0.6495, seems to be on the Bears’ radar. Though, 0.6500 round-figure might offer intermediate halt during the south-run. On the upside, any recovery below the February 07 low of 0.6750 seems to be tepid.
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