AUD/USD Price Analysis: Keeps the red below mid-0.7700s, downside seems limited


  • AUD/USD witnessed some profit-taking on the last trading day of the week.
  • The downside remains cushioned near the 0.7715-10 confluence support.
  • The set-up favours bullish traders and supports prospects for further gains.

The AUD/USD pair edged lower on the last trading day of the week and eroded a part of the previous day's positive move to four-week tops. The pair was last seen trading just below mid-0.7700s, down 0.15% for the day.

Mixed Chinese economic releases seemed to be the only factor that prompted some profit-taking around the China-proxy aussie. That said, a softer tone surrounding the US dollar extended some support to the AUD/USD pair. Apart from this, the prevalent risk-on mood further collaborated to limit the downside for the perceived riskier Australian dollar.

Looking at the technical picture, the AUD/USD pair stalled this week's solid rebound from sub-0.7600 levels just ahead of a resistance marked by the 50% Fibonacci level of the 0.8008-0.7531 downfall. The pullback, however, lacked any strong follow-through and the pair, so far, has managed to hold above the 50-day SMA/38.2% Fibo. confluence region.

The mentioned support is pegged near the 0.7715-10 region, which should now act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders and help determine the next leg of a directional move for the AUD/USD pair. Given that oscillators on the daily chart have just started moving into the positive territory, the bias seems tilted in favour of bullish traders.

However, it will still be prudent to wait for a sustained move beyond the 61.8% Fibo. level, around the 0.7765-70 region before positioning for any further appreciating move. The AUD/USD pair might then aim to surpass the 0.7800 mark and test the 61.8% Fibo., around the 0.7825-30 area, which is closely followed by March swing highs near mid-0.7800s.

On the flip side, weakness below the 0.7715-10 confluence resistance-turned-support should now be seen as a buying opportunity. This should help limit the downside near the recent trading range breakpoint, around the 0.7665-60 region. Only a sustained break below the latter will negate the positive bias and prompt some technical selling.

AUD/USD daily chart

fxsoriginal

Technical levels to watch

AUD/USD

Overview
Today last price 0.7741
Today Daily Change -0.0011
Today Daily Change % -0.14
Today daily open 0.7752
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 0.7645
Daily SMA50 0.7721
Daily SMA100 0.7668
Daily SMA200 0.7425
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 0.7762
Previous Daily Low 0.7705
Previous Weekly High 0.7678
Previous Weekly Low 0.7588
Previous Monthly High 0.785
Previous Monthly Low 0.7562
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.774
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.7727
Daily Pivot Point S1 0.7718
Daily Pivot Point S2 0.7683
Daily Pivot Point S3 0.7661
Daily Pivot Point R1 0.7775
Daily Pivot Point R2 0.7797
Daily Pivot Point R3 0.7832

 

 

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