AUD/USD Price Analysis: Bulls are moving in with eyes on a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement towards 0.6800

AUD/USD bulls are waiting patiently for a change of character in the market structure.
Bulls eye a test of 0.6800 for the days ahead while bears await confirmation of a downside opportunity.

Ross J Burland FXStreet

As per a prior analysis, AUD/USD drops heavily in risk-off markets following hawkish BoE, ECB and Federal Reserve, whereby bears were targeting a downward continuation move toward 0.6500, the thesis remains in play as the following will illustrate. However, for the immediate future, a correction towards 0.6800 could be on the cards first.

AUD/USD prior analysis

it was shown that AUD/USD had broken channel support and there were eyes on a break to the Volume Point of Control (VPC) of the late August to mid-October bear cycle:

The neckline of AUD/USD M-formation is still expected to serve as a resistance area of a restest in the coming days and that could lead to a downside continuation below the now counter-trendline to target the 0.65s.

AUD/USD update

Zoomed in...

The M-formation is still in the making. A bottom has not been confirmed yet as we are yet to see a daily first green day close that would signal the deceleration of the bearish impulse and prospects of a bullish correction of the same.

However, the upper quarter of the 0.66s is giving some support AUD and it could be time to start monitoring for a first green day close and planning the playbook on the lower time frames for a short squeeze set-up.

There is a price imbalance (PI) between 0.6736 and 0.6810 with the 61.8% ratio eyed as a confluence:

AUD/USD H1 chart

On the lower time frames, bulls will want to see a break of the trendline and prior lower high to confirm a bullish bias:

On the hourly time frame, we have seen a break in the trendline. The market is coiling sideways. We have equal lows at 0.6695 that are being pressured currently with liquidity in market orders expected below and under 0.6675 lows. A ''sweep' of the liquidity could result in a surge of demand from the bulls and ultimately provide enough fuel to take out the 0.6720 and then the 0.6736 resistance and create a change of character (CoCh) in the structure to bullish.

Author

Ross J Burland

FXStreet

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

EUR/USD looks to stabilize near 1.1600 as focus shifts to US data

EUR/USD is looking to stabilize near 1.1600 in the European session on Wednesday as traders breathe a sigh of relief before the top-tier US ADP jobs and ISM Services PMI data. A pause in the US Dollar uptrend helps the pair's recovery, but surging energy prices due to the Iran war will likely remain a drag.

GBP/USD stays weak near 1.3350 as USD preserves gains

GBP/USD stays in the red below 1.3350 in the European session on Wednesday. Escalating conflict in the Middle East keeps the "flight to safety" theme intact, supporting the US Dollar against the Pound Sterling. Traders will take more cues from the US ADP Employment and ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index reports, which are due later on Wednesday.

Gold retains positive bias amid sustained safe-haven flows and modest USD pullback

Gold maintains its offered tone through the first half of the European session, though it lacks follow-through and remains below the $5,200 mark. Investors remain concerned about a prolonged conflict in the Middle East and its impact on the global economy amid an already uncertain environment.

ADP Employment Report set to signal stronger February jobs growth, little effect on Fed outlook

The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Research Institute will release its monthly report on private-sector job creation for February on Wednesday. The so-called ADP Employment Change report is expected to show that the United States private sector added 50K new positions in the month, following the 22K gained in January.

Asian stocks fall as South Korea’s KOSPI slumps over 10%

Asian equities drop on Middle East tensions; the MSCI Asia Pacific Index falls up to 4%. South Korea’s KOSPI fell 10.71% near 5,170, with the Korean Won weakened past 1,500 per dollar.

Solana Price Forecast: SOL consolidation near resistance as ETF inflows offer mild support

Solana price is facing slight rejection as it approaches the upper boundary of the consolidation range at around $88 on Wednesday. Institutional demand is strengthening as spot Exchange Traded Funds recorded two consecutive inflows so far this week.