- Antipodeans remain the buyer’s favorites after China’s data dump.
- The sustained weakness of the US Dollar (USD) adds strength into the upside momentum.
- RBA minutes will be closely examined to seek clues for further rate cuts.
Following its run-up to a 12-day high on the back of upbeat China data and persistent greenback weakness, the AUD/USD pair carries its strength forward as taking rounds to 0.7040 amid initial Asian session on Tuesday.
China’s Retail Sales and Industrial Production cross the forecast while Gross Domestic Product (GDP) drops on YoY but increases on a quarterly basis during the latest release on Monday. With major data from the largest customer clocking in positive, the Aussie buyers cheered the upbeat sentiment previously supported by the USD declines.
The greenback, meanwhile, couldn’t respect better than forecast print of the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index as fears of easy money at the US continues to threaten the buyers.
Risk sentiment turns fragile after the recent pullback in equities led by the US benchmarks. The global risk gauge, 10-year US treasury yield flashes 2.09% by the press time.
Investors will keep an eye over minutes of the latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting in order to determine the near-term direction for the Aussie pair. Adding to the watch list during the later part will be the US Retail Sales figures for June coupled with a speech from the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
With the RBA pushing the brakes of a rate cut in its latest meeting and signaling that the central bank stands ready to act again if needed, investors will be interested to read how many such measures are anticipated by the monetary policymakers.
On the other hand, the US Retail Sales may keep garnering greenback bears if matching 0.2% MoM forecast compared to 0.5% prior with Retail Sales Control Group likely declining to 0.3% from 0.4% (revised) earlier. Moving on, Fed’s Powell is scheduled to speak at the French G7 Presidency 2019 on “Aspects of Monetary Policy in the Post-Crisis Era”. Markets will keep ears on clues to confirm recent bearish bias concerning the US Fed’s next policy move.
Technical Analysis
Unless successfully clearing 0.7048/52 area, comprising early-April lows and highs marked since May 07, chances of the quote’s pullback to 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) level of 0.7018 and then to 0.7000 can’t be denied. However, sellers targeting 0.6980 and 0.6910 can sneak in if prices sustain below 0.7000 mark.
Meanwhile, a sustained break of 0.7052 enables buyers to target late-April high near 0.7070 ahead of aiming 0.7110 and 0.7130/35 resistances.
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