AUD/USD: New high not confirmed by the RSI, caution – Commerzbank

Karen Jones, technical analyst at Commerzbank, gives her take on the near-term technical outlook and maintains slightly cautious positive bias for the AUD/USD pair.

Key Quotes:

"AUD/USD has broken higher but the new high has not been confirmed by the daily RSI and this suggests caution – we will tighten up stops. The Elliott count on the daily chart is pointing to a .7570/.7490 retracement ahead of another upside attempt and we remain unable to rule out slippage into this band. Currently the market seems well supported by the 20 day ma at .7620."

"Last week, the market eroded the 2013-2017 downtrend and cleared the .7645 Fibo resistance and in doing so has introduced scope to the .7778/.7850 2016 highs and the 38.2% retracement. Directly above here lies the 200 month ma at .7930. Very near term we would allow for a dip to .7470/.7490 ahead of further gains."
 

1 Week
Avg Forecast 0.7565
0.0%100.0%18.0%0-1001020304050607080901001100
  • 18% Bullish
  • 82% Bearish
  • 0% Sideways
Bias Bearish
1 Month
Avg Forecast 0.7500
100.0%92.0%15.0%01020304050607080901000
  • 15% Bullish
  • 77% Bearish
  • 8% Sideways
Bias Bearish
1 Quarter
Avg Forecast 0.7378
100.0%91.0%10.0%01020304050607080901000
  • 10% Bullish
  • 81% Bearish
  • 10% Sideways
Bias Bearish